Federal election: Montreal-area ridings that are too close to call

With less than a week to go before Election Day in Canada, the Liberals and Bloc Québécois are in a tight race in many ridings in and around Montreal.

With Mark Carney’s Liberals polling well nationally, several of his candidates could make inroads in ridings that are traditionally seen as Bloc strongholds.

If those polling trends result in votes on Election Day, the Bloc could be at risk of a complete wipeout on the island of Montreal.

Here’s a round-up of the close races based on polling data in the lead-up to April 28.

---

TOSS-UPS

La Prairie—Atateken

Two-time Bloc Québécois MP Alain Therrien is in a tight race with Liberal candidate Jacques Ramsay, with Ramsay taking a slight two-point lead in recent weeks according to poll aggregator 338Canada.

Terrebonne

This is another longtime Bloc Québécois stronghold. Incumbent Nathalie Sinclair Desgagne, who beat the Liberal candidate by 12 percentage points of the vote in 2021, has seen her lead shrink to two points since Carney was elected leader of the party.

Repentigny

This riding has been a Bloc stronghold for decades. Except for the “Orange Wave” election of 2011, where NDP’s Jean-François Larose won, the riding has consistently voted in a Bloc MP.

With incumbent Monique Pauzé not seeking re-election, the Bloc’s Patrick Bonin is facing a challenge from Liberal candidate Pierre Richard Thomas. According to 338, Pauzé briefly polled ahead of Bonin, who is now back to leading the Liberals by three percentage points.

---

RIDINGS TO WATCH

La Pointe-de-l’Île

One of two Montreal ridings held by the Bloc Québécois is likely to be a tight race between three-time Bloc MP Mario Beaulieu and Liberal candidate Viviane Minko. The Liberals have never won here since the riding was created in 2004.

The Green party candidate is Olivier Huard, who was arrested for scaling the Jacques Cartier Bridge in October 2024. He’s balancing court dates with his election campaign.

LaSalle—Émard—Verdun

The second Montreal riding belonging to the Bloc Québécois, candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé edged out a victory in what was considered a Liberal stronghold in the September 2024 byelection. It was a tight three-way battle between the Bloc, the Liberals and the NDP, and the loss was seen as a big setback for then-prime minister Justin Trudeau.

The Liberal candidate is now polling at 52 per cent compared to Sauvé’s 17 per cent, according to 338Canada.

Mount Royal

Mount Royal has long been a Liberal stronghold, with incumbent Anthony Housefather seeking a fourth term.

Conservatives are countering with lawyer Neil Oberman. The riding has voted Liberal for 85 years, and Housefather was among the Liberal MPs saying Justin Trudeau should step aside.

He endorsed Chrystia Freeland during the Liberal leadership race, but defended Carney after he slipped up and mistakenly said he agreed with Hamas during the French leadership debate.

Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie

This riding is currently the only NDP seat in Quebec, held by incumbent Alexandre Boulerice, who is quite popular. Will the area buck the national trend shifting towards the Liberals, or will the NDP hold on?

Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville

Bloc candidate Patrick O’Hara lost by 12 votes in the 2021 election before the riding was redistributed. O’Hara is back this time around, but the opposition is different. Polytechnique survivor and gun control activist Nathalie Provost is looking to keep the riding Liberal red.

Early in the campaign, Carney mispronounced Provost’s name and got the location of the Polytechnique massacre wrong. He later apologized.

Beloeil—Chambly

Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet is likely to hold onto his seat in Beloeil, but it may not be as safe as it previously was. Could the Liberals and Conservatives gain ground in the usual Bloc stronghold amid economic concerns and a recent surge of Canadian patriotism among Quebecers? Blanchet admitted during the campaign that his party could be losing seats.