Quebec on brink of senior care crisis as support needs surge

Current resources are insufficient to meet the needs of seniors. By 2035, an additional 111,000 seniors risk not having access to home care services or suitable living environments. The Quebec Alliance of Living Environments for Seniors (AQMVA) is sounding the alarm and calling on decision-makers to act before reaching a critical point. 

This is a “clear imbalance” between the increase in demand and the supply of the public network, denounces the AQMVA, which represents 86 per cent of accommodation for seniors in Quebec, as much for home care, in CHSLD, in private residences for seniors (RPA) or in intermediate resources. 

The AQMVA commissioned the firm Aviseo Conseil to conduct a 10-year forecast of the demand for support and assistance services for seniors. The report published Tuesday paints an alarming picture.

The number of seniors needing support for independent living will increase from 289,000 in 2025 to 400,000 in 2035, representing a 38 per cent rise. Support for independent living includes, for example, assistance getting out of bed, partial or complete bathing, medication management, and so on. This support can be provided at home, but also in other settings, such as residences. 

Forecasts predict that in 10 years, 70 per cent of the demand will be for home support, while demand for long-term care facilities will jump by more than 50 per cent. By 2040, 40,000 new long-term care beds will be needed to meet the demand. 

Some regions are more affected than others 

More than half of the increase in home support services is concentrated in the Montérégie, Montreal, Laurentians, and Capitale-Nationale regions. These four regions alone account for nearly 50 per cent of the total growth when their population size and aging are combined. 

Carl Veilleux, chairman of the board of directors of the Quebec Association of Intermediate Housing Resources (ARIHQ), wonders what the government’s vision is for the coming years in Quebec. 

He cites statistics that speak for themselves. Since 2018, 700 retirement homes have closed, “primarily for financial reasons,” according to Veilleux. Furthermore, since 2020, 72 per cent of calls for tenders for intermediate care services have not been successful “because the financing conditions are not aligned with market realities.” 

“We are all getting older, but some regions will be under more pressure than others. […] In terms of long-term care facilities, intermediate resources, and private seniors’ residences (RPA) as well, we need to stop them closing down. We must continue to develop and maintain services, that is essential,” Veilleux points out.

Already, 25,000 seniors are not receiving the care and services they need. More specifically, 3,500 seniors are waiting for a place in a long-term care facility (CHSLD) and 17,800 are waiting for their first home care service, according to data from the Ministry of Health’s dashboard. In addition, figures from the ARIHQ (Association of Residents of Quebec) indicate that 5,500 people are waiting for a place in intermediate care facilities. 

These people wander through the system. Either they find themselves hospitalized waiting for a place in a long-term care facility that may never materialize for them, or their caregivers become exhausted from taking care of them. 

“There are cases housed in intermediate resources that should normally be transferred to long-term care facilities, but due to a lack of space, they are kept in intermediate resources,” explains Veilleux. “The teams on site are not always equipped to properly support these more complex client groups. So, this puts pressure on the team, […] it also has an effect on all the other residents who live with this person, because perhaps the person becomes disorganized, has serious behavioral problems, so they are no longer in their place and they disrupt the living environment.”

This type of case also bogs down the services of first responders who have to intervene in healthcare settings, “when they shouldn’t,” comments Veilleux. 

“The doorbell is ringing louder than ever”

Currently, only 127 new spaces in seniors’ residences will be available in the coming years, according to the ministry’s dashboard. This represents a “marginal increase compared to the projected rise in needs,” states the AQMVA. 

The report indicates that the needs and costs for supporting the autonomy of seniors will quadruple, rising from $6.2 billion in 2020 to $25.6 billion in 2050. “This major financial pressure on the Quebec government requires urgent reform prioritizing less expensive home care,” the report states. 

“We are reaffirming a fact we already knew. I think the alarm bell for us is ringing louder than ever. We are definitely facing a crisis in support services for seniors, with 25,000 people today who do not have their services. I think we are already in it, and the crisis will only intensify in the coming years,” warns Veilleux. 

“Even in the optimistic scenario, we will not be able to meet the needs of our seniors, so it is absolutely imperative that we mobilize quickly to work differently, all together, in order to get through this crisis,” he said.

Veilleux is asking the Minister responsible for Seniors and Caregivers, Sonia Bélanger, to sit down with the AQMVA to implement solutions. 

—The Canadian Press’s health coverage is supported by a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. The Canadian Press is solely responsible for this journalistic content.

–This report by La Presse Canadienne was translated by CityNews