PQ momentum, party turmoil and referendum talk set the stage for Quebec’s 2026 provincial election

Quebecers will head to the polls on Oct. 5 to choose a new premier, with early signs pointing to a shifting political landscape marked by rising Parti Québécois support and renewed debate over sovereignty.

Polling suggests the PQ is gaining ground as it places a referendum front and centre.

The Quebec Liberals are regrouping after internal turmoil that saw leader Pablo Rodriguez step down in December, with a new leader set to be chosen March 14.

Questions are also swirling around the governing Coalition Avenir Québec following the departure of Health Minister Christian Dubé, adding to uncertainty ahead of the campaign.

“What was going to be a three-way race, potentially, is now going to be arguably a PQ win with very little resistance,” said political analyst Karim Boulos.

Among voters in Montreal, reactions are mixed.

Some expressed anxiety over the prospect of a third referendum. “I’m very worried that the PQ are going to get in,” said one resident. “I just think it’s not good for Quebec.”

Others said the PQ’s focus is clear. “It’s unfortunate if there are people who don’t want a referendum but still vote for the PQ, because that’s their number one goal,” said another Montrealer, Stephan Vincent.

For many voters, the possibility of another referendum looms large as the election approaches. “I do not want to be separated. I still want to be part of Canada,” said Jacob Pushpakara.

Political analyst Eleni Bakopanos said sovereignty will remain central to the PQ’s messaging. “The PQ are going to continue to talk about having a referendum because that’s their raison d’être,” she said. “That’s pandering to their base.”

Boulos cautioned that any push toward sovereignty would need careful handling. “The sovereignty question will have to be very well thought out,” he said.

“Nobody wants to lose the third attempt at it.” He added that organizers would aim to build support beyond a narrow margin. “There’ll be a lot of groundwork to obtain not just a 50-plus-one vote, but something significant.”

Younger voters, meanwhile, appear divided. Some say economic pressures weigh more heavily than constitutional questions, while others welcomed debate around identity and culture.

“I think it’s important to talk about Quebec culture and identity,” said one Montrealer. “But with everything happening economically, I don’t know if now is the best time to separate.”

With parties in flux and voters split on the path forward, analysts say the outcome of the 2026 provincial election remains far from certain.