Canada could lose 4,000 restaurants in 2026, Montreal owner feels the pressure

According to projections from Dalhousie University, the net number of Canadian restaurants is expected to go down by 4,000 in the coming year.

Food industry expert Sylvain Charlebois says 2025 has already been damaging, with 7,000 restaurants lost.

Independent owners like Alain Creton say is hard to watch, knowing how much investment it takes to run a restaurant.

“Probably many of those restaurants had just started a few years ago. So that’s when the people didn’t have time to really have profit and they find themselves with no money at all,” said Creton.

“I started mine 50 years ago. I was a cook, then I was a waiter, then I was a manager. I have a strong experience, but definitely [putting] all my money on this restaurant. And in case it was really something that happened to me, then if I lose everything, that’s when I lose 10 years of savings. And it will be a long, not funny story.”

Charlebois says, “When you look at the 4,000, a lot of establishments are going to be independently owned. It’s sad because those are the ones typically that would bring forward innovation, like new recipes, new cuisines. They’re the ones that actually are getting Canadians consumers to travel without a passport, essentially.”

After two strong post‑pandemic years at Chez Alexandre, business has slowed again. Owner Alain Creton says the shift to remote work and rising food prices are now taking a toll.

“The price of the salad, the price of the fish, every price is going up,” said Creton.

Charlebois says, “We’re noticing with some of our assessments is that people are spending less at the restaurant. What’s really interesting is that the younger generations are spending more at the restaurant, but they get their food delivered at their homes.”

With the federal government planning to reduce temporary resident admissions by 43 per cent for 2026, many operators may struggle even more. Charlebois expects this year to be a frugal one for customers.

“If people do go out, they won’t necessarily order an appetizer, a dessert, or sides, and of course, the expensive bottle of wine,” said Charlebois.

Creton adds, “I will say to anybody who dreams about restaurants, not to forget, but God… it’s not that much profit.”