Key races to watch on election night

Many polls suggest this federal election is simply too close to call, but several critical races could go a long way toward deciding which party emerges victorious.

The magic number to win a majority is 170 seats, but most analysts believe that’s unlikely to happen.

The Liberals fell 13 seats short of that same mark in the 2019 election.

Here are some of the key parts of the country to keep a close eye on tonight.

THE BATTLE FOR QUEBEC

The unexpected surge of the Bloc Quebecois is a big reason why Prime Minister Justin Trudeau ended up with a minority government the last time around. Once again, either the success or failure of the Bloc will be a big storyline tonight.

Quebec accounts for nearly a quarter of the seats in the House of Commons, and the Liberals will be trying to regain votes in and around Montreal. Pollsters believe that up to nine ridings could flip in Quebec, with the Conservatives possibly coming away with a few victories as well.

WILL THE LIBERALS LOSE GROUND IN TORONTO?

A fierce battle is also being waged in vote-rich Ontario.

A handful of seats in Toronto are up for grabs between the Liberals and the NDP. The closest result of the night could come in the riding of Davenport. The Liberals won that race by fewer than 1,500 votes in 2019.

Embattled Green Party leader Annamie Paul will be fighting for her political life, trying to win a seat in Toronto Centre. That’s a long-time red riding that was once held by former finance minister Bill Morneau.

O’TOOLE TAKES AIM AT THE 905

The so-called 905 — those heavily populated areas on the outskirts of Toronto — are also critical.
The Conservatives fell flat in that part of the province two years ago. If Erin O’Toole wants to become Prime Minister, his party will need to pick up wins in places like Mississauga, Brampton and Oakville.
Even Trudeau’s procurement minister Anita Anand will be in tough holding on to her riding in Oakville, despite her crucial role in bringing COVID-19 vaccines to Canada.

B.C. BECOMES KEY BATTLEGROUND

If the Liberals end up losing ground in Ontario, the party could potentially make up that difference in British Colombia.

That would mean stealing ridings from the NDP, the Conservatives, and perhaps even the Green Party.

The Tories jumped from just nine seats to 17 in B.C. two years ago, but some pollsters believe that
O’Toole’s message isn’t resonating strongly in British Columbia. That means many of those blue ridings are considered a toss-up this time around.

WILL TRADITIONAL STRONGHOLDS CRUMBLE?

With every riding meaning so much, even some traditional strongholds are worth watching tonight.
Insiders believe that at least three seats in the typically Conservative province of Alberta could be in play for Trudeau.

Even the Atlantic provinces, which are usually a safe haven for the Liberals, could see a handful of ridings change hands.