Quebec Election Day 31: New poll shows tight race for second, Liberals go on media blitz

Quebec Liberal Leader Dominique Anglade is on a media blitz today to raise her profile ahead of next week’s election. She’s scheduled to conduct no fewer than six media interviews in Montreal and Quebec City.

This, as a new Léger poll shows 37 per cent of voters intend to support the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) and hand François Legault’s party another majority government, but they’ve lost five points since the beginning of the campaign.

It’s still a tight race for second: Québec solidaire (QS) sitting at 17 per cent support, while the Liberals are at 16 per cent, and the Conservative Party of Quebec and Parti Québécois (PQ) sit at 15 per cent.

So far, Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (QS) and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (PQ) appear to be the two leaders who performed best in this election marathon, according to the poll. But the leader with the most important rise is St-Pierre Plamondon, he increased his support by six points since the beginning of the campaign and saw many feel he won the last debate at 21 per cent, while Nadeau-Dubois was second at 12 per cent.

When asked who voters would like to see as official opposition in the National Assembly, the PQ comes in first at 26 per cent, QS at 19 per cent, the CAQ with 12 per cent, the Liberals at 11 per cent, and the Conservatives at six per cent.

Nadeau-Dubois is still in the lead as favoured opposition leader with 27 percent, St-Pierre Plamondon not far behind at 25 per cent, Anglade at 15 per cent, and Éric Duhaime at 13 per cent.

The best campaign went to the PQ with 24 per cent, QS at 15 per cent, the Conservatives with 12 per cent, incumbent CAQ at 11 per cent, and Liberals last with nine per cent.

Voters 55 and over lean towards the CAQ, the survey shows, with 49 per cent support, while the Liberals come in second there with 19 per cent, PQ right behind at 18 per cent, Conservatives at nine per cent, and QS with four per cent.

Francophone voters favour the CAQ 43 per cent, PQ 19 per cent, QS 18 per cent, Conservatives 14 per cent, and Liberals last at seven per cent.

In the Montreal region, the CAQ leading voter intentions with 32 per cent, 23 per cent for Liberals, 16 per cent QS, 14 per cent PQ, and 13 per cent Conservatives.

The web survey was conducted for Quebecor media properties Journal/TVA/QUB – among 1,023 Quebecers 18 and over, eligible to vote. The data was collected from Sept. 23 to 25, 2022. It is not possible to calculate a margin of error on a sample drawn from a panel, but as a comparison, the maximum margin of error for a sample of 1,023 respondents is ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

Meanwhile, CAQ Leader François Legault is campaigning for a second day in Îles-de-la-Madeleine, where post-tropical storm Fiona caused significant damage to seaside infrastructure.

Polls say the CAQ is in a tight race on the island archipelago with the Parti Québécois, whose candidate Joël Arseneau won the riding by 15 votes over his Liberal rival in 2018.

Legault will head to the Gaspé Peninsula later in the day and then visit two ridings in Quebec’s Côte-Nord region.

Québec solidaire co-spokesperson Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois has four events in the Quebec City area today before he campaigns in the riding of Sherbrooke, Que., where his incumbent candidate is trying to fend off Caroline St-Hilaire, a star candidate for the CAQ.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 27, 2022.