What to expect in Quebec politics in 2024: Q&A with political analyst

Political analyst Karim Boulos breaks down what Quebecers can expect in provincial politics in 2024, in the CAQ’s second year of their second mandate.

What’s on your radar for the next year?

“I think right now if we’re looking at the polls, we see that the meteoric rise of Paul Saint-Pierre-Plamondon and the PQ is, should be, worrying Mr. [François] Legault. I think Mr. Legault has had a couple of missteps, some highly unpopular positions with the Anglophone community. But even in the region, some of his support is starting to wear a little bit thinner. People are starting to see him as a human being, as a fallible person who’s making decisions really by shooting from the hip. Some of the programs, some of the projects, some of the initiatives that are being presented by the CAQ, people wonder where they came from.”

“So I think he’s going to have to keep a very close eye on that to not lose any more ground to the PQ. And certainly not to give any kind of a lifeline to the provincial liberals who are still struggling, not for anything they’ve done wrong, but really for being without a full-fledged leader. I think Marc Tanguay is doing an excellent job. I think he’s been very vocal. The issues that they are pointing out are very relevant to all Quebecers. And yet the title of interim leader is hurting him right now. And I think it’s hurting the party right now.”

The CAQ is trending downward, will it translate when it comes to elections in a couple of years?

“We’ve learned one thing from polls and it can never really, nobody can be counted out. Mr. Legault is trending downwards because of a few unpopular positions in his government’s mandates. Mr. [Bernard] Drainville is announcing new reforms to education, the Bill 15, the health bill, re-centralizing everything again under Santé Québec. People are saying, well, what about me as the patient? Where do I fit in all this? We get the business plan, but where does the human being fit? Mr. [Pierre] Fitzgibbon is seen as a businessman. He sees the business plan. He sees government as a business to be righted, to be corrected. And so that, that isn’t resonating very well in recent polls and recent opinions of Quebecers. It’s not really the way we do things here. And so he’s got to be careful. He’s got to show Quebecers that, yes, there is the day-to-day administration of running and making sure that we’re fiscally responsible as a government. But as well, there has to be the human component. “

Will the Liberal Party find a new leader in 2024?

“I think their committee has said that they’re spending the next few months consulting and collaborating, trying to revive their regional committees. They need to find 125 candidates before the next election. So I don’t think they will name a permanent leader in 2024. Certainly at the start of 2025 would be a great idea to allow the leader to do a lot of work on the ground. The Liberal Party is lacking the grassroots support that it needs if it wants to, to have a shot at even a minority government. So I think the grassroots work is going to be will be seeing it behind the scenes in 2024, but I don’t think we’ll see a new leader next year.”