Canadiens mid-season report: ‘Seller’ status sets stage for dramatic second half
Posted January 15, 2024 3:15 pm.
Last Updated January 15, 2024 3:16 pm.
We’re a game past the halfway mark and the Montreal Canadiens are one under .500, which isn’t where they hoped to be prior to this season.
But it isn’t that far off, either, with general manager Kent Hughes originally saying the only objectives for the Canadiens would be to grow as a group and individually.
On both fronts, Hughes said on Monday that he’s generally satisfied.
We’re not sure how much he expected he would be at this point when he saw Kirby Dach’s season would be cut short by 80 games, so he has to be encouraged by that.
The GM also said he likes how Nick Suzuki has rounded out his game, that he’s been pleased with the progress of Juraj Slafkovsky, Jayden Struble, Samuel Montembeault and Cayden Primeau, and even pleased with the Canadiens’ growth at five-on-five.
“It may not be constant, but that’s natural for a young team,” Hughes said. “Especially at five-on-five, where there are so many different facets of play. I’d like to see us keep working at our rush coverage, but we have to factor in that we’ve asked many players to play in higher chairs than they’d normally be in.”
Yes, injuries have brought about that familiar problem that plagued the Canadiens so much over the two seasons prior to this one.
But, through half a season, they’ve still managed that problem better than in years prior. Even if that’s not entirely reflected in the standings.
KEY STATS
Record: 17-18-7 (6th in the Atlantic Division, 25th in NHL)
Goals per game: 2.67 (28th in the NHL)
Goals-against per game: 3.36 (10th-most in the NHL)
Power play: 17.9% (22nd in the NHL)
Penalty Kill: 73.2% (28th in the NHL)
BEST SURPRISE
Who saw Jayden Struble coming?
If Hughes didn’t, with the defenceman practically growing up at his house, who would’ve?
Not even Martin St. Louis, who had pretty strong background on the player as well.
“I think he surprised a lot of us coming in,” the coach said on Sunday.
Struble did it right off the hop, making his NHL debut in Anaheim, on Nov. 22, and not appearing remotely out of place through just 11 shifts and 11:20 that night.
What’s he done on a blue line overflowing with young talent since? The 22-year-old has not only cemented his place since but also snatched one away from other players who started way ahead in the pecking order.
And as Struble’s ice-time has steadily increased—he recently moved up from the third pair up to the second—the possibility of him staying in Montreal from here to the end of the season has only gotten stronger.
St. Louis outlined how Struble can make that a certainty.
“He jumped in and looked comfortable,” said St. Louis. “Now, we have high standards because of what he’s shown us. And when you raise the standards, (you raise our expectations). So, for him it’s just to find that consistency of what you know he’s capable of, and it’s the hardest thing for any young player.”
This one surprised everyone off the hop, but no one should be shocked if Struble continues to show consistency moving forward.
Considering how much his confidence continues to swell, it wouldn’t even be a surprise to see him raise his own standard by another notch or two.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT
Steering clear of the obvious—that Cole Caufield only has 12 goals or that the penalty kill hasn’t improved from last season to this one despite many more NHL regulars available to do the job—it’s that Dach has lost an entire year of development.
To have it ripped away by torn ACL and MCL ligaments suffered in the fifth period of the season is not only a massive disappointment for him but also one for several of his teammates.
It’s one for the team, as well.
Dach came into the season poised to break out, especially after an electric training camp that had him looking the most like a former third-overall pick as he has since being drafted in 2019, and there’s no denying how well it would’ve served him to deliver on that promise. But just think about what that would’ve done for the Canadiens.
On an individual basis, Dach blossoming would’ve opened up less steep development paths for Suzuki, Slafkovsky and Caufield—taking a lot of the heavy offensive lifting, and the most burdensome matchups, off their shoulders on many nights. And on the team side, the flexibility Dach’s availability would’ve offered St. Louis the best opportunity to make the Canadiens that much more competitive than they were a year ago.
Dach would’ve helped big-time on the power play. Perhaps even on the penalty kill. And, most significantly, he would’ve stabilized things at five-on-five.
The word “disappointing” doesn’t even cover what it’s meant to not have this player available through almost the entirety of the first half. Even if the Canadiens have done the best they could be expected to do in Dach’s absence, it’s as if they’ve been playing on torn ligaments.
Dach’s injury hasn’t fully hindered their progress, but it’s kept them from reaching another level of it. And that’s beyond unfortunate.
It’s absolutely brutal for Dach, who has spent months watching his teammates from the press box and is still months away from getting back on the ice with them.
BIG QUESTION FOR THE SECOND HALF
It was back on Nov. 27, after the Canadiens had finished the last game of their first quarter, that we wondered who might get traded first.
Now, the biggest question is: How many members of the current Canadiens move to other teams between now and the Mar. 8 trade deadline?
This team’s status as a seller was pretty much assured the minute it was known Dach would miss the rest of the season, it was only further cemented with long-term injuries to Alex Newhook and Christian Dvorak, and it has a lot to offer to a needy market. By our count, as many as five players could be shipped out of Montreal over the coming weeks.
It seems entirely likely Sean Monahan will be the first one. And with good reason, considering his profile, his contract, and what should be strong incentive for the Canadiens to strike as soon as the return they’re looking for is offered.
Hughes didn’t deny it Monday—the incentive to move before an injury potentially strikes makes it so he can’t.
But Hughes also pointed out that’s not entirely within his control.
“It’s a balance,” he said. “Other teams that are buying are waiting as well. Some have a wish list. Maybe they want to see what happens with one centre they have ranked higher before considering another.”
Some will unquestionably wait until the last minute just for salary cap purposes.
Others might be holding out for a defenceman or two, which Hughes can dangle.
We have David Savard listed on our board, and the possibility one or two younger Canadiens blue liners join him there between now and Mar. 7 is quite high.
Back up front, Tanner Pearson is nearing a return to play after a six-week absence with a hand injury and he will also be a player that the GM likely addresses before the deadline.
Hughes couldn’t guarantee one of his goalies would, but he did say that’s the outcome he’s looking for to resolve the team’s three-man rotation.
So, buckle up. The next half season is already underway, and it promises to have a significant impact on the Canadiens’ future.
