Montreal home prices could rise 8.5% by end of year: real estate survey

The price of a home in the greater Montreal area could increase by 8.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of this year, a recent market survey shows.

Real estate company Royal LePage says its forecast is based on a stronger-than-expected first quarter.

“We reviewed our forecast upward, basically because the market has shifted into gears much faster than it initially anticipated. I think people have started being attracted to the market as soon as they feel confident that rates will start to come down,” said Royal LePage commercial and residential broker Marc Lefrançois.

Lefrançois says several factors could explain the predicted surge, including an anticipated decrease in mortgage interest rates and a strong demand for homes with lower supply, partly linked to immigration.

“Canada, the policy last year, almost a million people were added to the tally,” the real estate broker told CityNews. “And that you have to have places to lodge these people. And if you’re not building enough, fast enough, basically, that just created demand. So that’s been in the case for the last six, seven years, even prior to the pandemic.”

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The median price of a single-family home in Montreal is $553,000, according to the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers – a five per cent increase in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period last year.

“Now in Montreal we’re seeing people have smaller homes looking to buy bigger homes,” Lefrançois said. the activity of homes above a million dollars in January, February this year versus the same period last year is up 70 percent. That’s a huge increase in activity.”

Here’s what some Montrealers had to say about the state of the real estate market in the city.

Will Neumuth: “Definitely disappointing to hear; an 8.5 per cent is not a small increase. So I don’t know, definitely disappointing to hear andnot the way I would hope things would go for this great city.”

Chinedu: “I actually don’t think it’s going to happen because there’s going to be a reduction in immigration and that’s going to help with the housing crisis we’re currently experiencing. And I think that’s going to help because once the immigration comes down, then there will be more housing available for everyone.”

Alex: “As a homeowner, not looking to buy, means higher taxes in the short term or in the medium term. So it’s not good for people looking to buy, but it’s not good for people already owning a property.”

Ghazel Abassalian: “I feel worried about it for myself and for people I know and for my kid who will be growing up and who’s four now, but will not stay four.”

Sarah Holmes: “It’s really disheartening, especially as somebody who’s getting older, looking shortly into the future of where am I going to buy property, and knowing that Montreal probably isn’t going to be someplace that’s in the realm of possibilities for me.”

Martin Breul: “The increase in house prices makes me feel kind of hopeless to ever own one. I’m a renter, I’m a grad student, I’m a researcher and yeah, I feel even in the best-case scenario outcomes of the education that I’m going through, I won’t be able to live in the neighbourhoods of my choice in this city. It’s crazy.”