Pablo Rodriguez prepares his campaign for the Quebec Liberal Party

Although he still refuses to publicly confirm his intentions to run for the Quebec Liberal Party (QLP), Federal Transport Minister Pablo Rodriguez is working behind the scenes alongside close collaborators to jump into the race to succeed Dominique Anglade, The Canadian Press has learned.

“They are active and preparing Pablo’s campaign,” said an anonymous provincial Liberal source.

The hidden source named four people, including three in Rodriguez’s inner circle, who were heavily involved.

After checking, a source close to the minister confirmed that “we are preparing.”

They mentioned that Rodriguez had conversations with Liberal elected officials to test the waters and solicit their support if he were to run. Several of them also told The Canadian Press that they had recently discussed a possible candidacy with him.

Another source confirmed that they are part of the minister’s inner circle “who worked very hard” to convince him to run. And this group is learning “about the modalities in order to be ready” the day the minister announces his candidacy.

“The approach is serious,” they added. “It’s not balloons thrown into the air.”

A fourth source, also in the federal government, reported that steps had been taken to find out about the rules of the race and discussions had taken place with the QLP, information that could be cross-checked otherwise.

On some elements, “if he decides to go for it, we know what to do” and how to “guide” Rodriguez during the first days, said the anonymous source.

But it’s still at a preliminary level. There’s no game plan like “here’s your speech (for the) first day, here are the interviews (for the) third day,” they explained.

There is no platform either. In other words, “if he announces tomorrow that he is launching, we have limited preparation.”

Will he run?

During a press briefing in Halifax, during the federal cabinet retreat, he told The Canadian Press that he was “very comfortable” letting the suspense hang in the air while he rubs shoulders with his colleagues, perhaps soon to be ex-colleagues, for three days.

While assuring that he does not intend to “go on the record,” Rodriguez masterfully avoided saying whether he was waiting for the byelection in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun to pass – a stronghold that the Liberals cannot afford to lose – to bow out.

“He confirmed that he is running for the QLP leadership role, and I am really not the only one he told,” said a provincial Liberal source. “But as long as it’s not announced behind a podium, there’s always a chance he won’t go.”

One source around Rodriguez insisted that the decision is not “final” to the point of saying “100 per cent” he will run.

Another person reported that they are “90 per cent sure that he will go.”

The provincial Liberals are holding their pre-sessional caucus next week in Gatineau, Outaouais and a campaign event is planned for Tuesday evening.

“All the MNAs should be there, normally. If Pablo wants to come…”, said a source who hopes the minister shows up.

However, Rodriguez is not expected to be present. The federal Liberals from Quebec will meet in pre-sessional caucus the same day in Estrie.

Although he’s not officially in the race, Rodriguez already has the support from Notre-Dame-de-Grâce MNA Désirée McGraw, who became the first elected member of the Liberal caucus to openly offer her support to a candidate expected or declared in the race for the leadership of the QLP.

Rodriguez’s daughter and his communications director, Jacques Martineau, were present at the QLP Youth Commission congress in Montreal at the beginning of August to test the waters.

The race is taking shape

So far, only two candidates have entered the Liberal leadership race, which does not officially begin until next January: former Montreal mayor Denis Coderre and former president of the Fédération des chambres de commerce du Québec Charles Milliard.

In addition to Rodriguez, the mayor of Victoriaville, Antoine Tardif, and QLP member for Marguerite-Bourgeoys, Frédéric Beauchemin, are expected to eventually announce their candidacy.

The Liberals are betting on this race for their revival. However, the next Liberal leader will have a lot to do to rebuild the party. According to the latest Léger polls, the QLP is garnering meager support, reaching barely 6 per cent among Francophones.

Candidates who want to take over for Dominique Anglade will also have to work hard to recruit new members aged 16 to 25 who have deserted the QLP in recent years. Young members account for 33 per cent of the votes in a leadership race.

The new Liberal leader will be chosen in the summer of 2025.

–This report by La Presse Canadienne was translated by CityNews