Quebec could be home to 10.6 million people by 2071

Quebec’s population could rise from 8.9 to 10.6 million by 2071. This increase will be driven mainly by immigration, while deaths should outnumber births in just under three years.

This is the conclusion reached by the Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ) in its latest demographic outlook, published on Monday.

According to its reference scenario, annual growth between 2024 and 2027 will be zero, due to the expected decrease in the number of non-permanent residents. Quebec population growth would then resume, reaching 10 million in 2054 and 10.6 million in 2071.

However, the ISQ anticipates a negative natural increase, with the number of deaths exceeding the number of births from 2027 onwards. This situation is “mainly due to the arrival of the baby-boom generations at high-mortality ages”, the institute points out.

“As a result of the sustained decline in this natural increase over the coming decades, population growth will increasingly depend on migratory growth,” the report states.

Capitale-Nationale is the region with the highest potential population growth (30 per cent), followed by Laurentides (27 per cent), Estrie (24.5 per cent), Centre-du-Québec (23.7 per cent), Chaudière-Appalaches (23 per cent), Montérégie (22.7 per cent) and Lanaudière (22.3 per cent).

In its report, the ISQ presents various scenarios in which it foresees a stronger or weaker evolution of the various demographic trends.

–This report by La Presse Canadienne was translated by CityNews