Reducing temporary immigration will come at a cost in Quebec: new IDQ study

Reducing temporary immigration is necessary, but “there will be a price to pay” economically, suggests a new study from the Institut du Québec (IDQ).

It says that the federal and Quebec government should plan better to avoid “making gradual decisions” in the future.

According to a report released Wednesday, Quebec experienced “exceptional” population growth in 2023 and 2024 (two and 2.4 per cent), reaching rates usually recorded in developing countries.

This situation is the result of a sharp increase in temporary immigration.

This was mainly driven by an increase in the work permit category (49 per cent between 2021 and 2024), while the reception of asylum seekers increased by 31 per cent during the same period.

Both Quebec and Ottawa are responsible for this significant increase in temporary immigration.

They “opened the floodgates” at the end of the pandemic with various programs. Each with “its own logic and specific objectives, without sufficient coordination or a coherent overall vision,” the study noted.

However, these measures came at a time when the economy was already showing signs of weakness, said IDQ President and CEO Emna Braham.

“This meant that the pace of job creation was slower than the pace of population growth. And who paid the price? It was the immigrants themselves who had more difficulty finding a job and who saw their unemployment rate increase significantly,” she said in an interview.

Both levels of government now want to reverse course, seeing pressures on housing and public services. The IDQ also agrees that a reduction in temporary immigrants is necessary in this context.

‘A price to pay’

This change of direction will be difficult, added Braham.

“There could be a price to pay. Because multiplying adjustments to temporary immigration without vision risks losing the support of the population, which is historically strong. We risk losing the best talent and we risk destabilizing sectors of the economy that rely on these workers,” she said.

Ottawa and Quebec’s reduction targets are “ambitious,” said the authors of the study, but did not specify what the targets should be.

Braham cited the Trudeau government’s announcement last week as an example; that temporary immigrants would represent five per cent of the Canadian population by the end of 2026.

“According to estimates, this could mean that Quebec will issue three times fewer temporary residence permits than last year,” she explained, adding that this could have an impact on people already present in the territory and on businesses.

‘Take back control’

The IDQ wants a more coherent approach and better coordination of the different temporary and permanent immigration programs between Quebec and Ottawa in the future.

“Rather than making decisions on each program, we should see it all in an overall vision. Then try to see how it can all fit together so that it benefits Quebecers, Canadians, and immigrants themselves,” said Simon Savard, senior economist and assistant director at the IDQ.

The authors also call on both governments to “regain control of their immigration policy by limiting the influence of external actors such as employers and educational institutions.”

The Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP), which was initially created to serve as a last resort solution, has been relaxed at the request of employers to respond to the labour shortage.

“In the last year, it has been somewhat at odds with the economic slowdown and significant population growth,” said Savard.

Recently, the federal government and the Quebec government announced a tightening of the criteria for the TFWP.

According to Braham, it is up to the governments to ensure that their programs align with their own integration capacities.

The IDQ also proposed to “reconnect with economic objectives and productivity,” pointing out that the increased use of temporary immigration “can also dissuade companies from investing in innovation and technological development.”

The organization suggests finding a balance between immediate workforce needs and “promoting a more productive and innovative economy in the long term.”

–This report by La Presse Canadienne was translated by CityNews