Legault worries Trump’s 25 per cent tariff could pose ‘enormous risk’ for Quebec

Quebec Premier François Legault worries that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s threat of a 25 per cent tariff on all imports would pose an “enormous risk” to the Quebec and Canadian economies.

“We have to take this seriously,” said Legault in a press scrum Tuesday afternoon. “We can’t start a war and we have to do everything we can to not have these tariffs.”

In a post on social media platform X, Premier Legault also said that Canada needed to do everything possible to avoid that from happening. 

“The integrity of the Canadian border must be the federal government’s top priority,” he continued, before offering the Quebec government’s complete collaboration to the Trudeau administration.

A Quebec manufacturers’ organization, the Manufacturiers et Exportateurs du Québec (MEQ), says it is “extremely concerned” by Trump’s proposal, calling the United States the top export market for Quebec.

“If these tariffs come to fruition, it will send a real shockwave through our economy,” said interim MEQ spokesperson and vice-president of public affairs Julie White. “The federal government and the Quebec government share our concerns and are taking action through diplomatic and economic networks to avoid this situation.

“Although this may be a negotiation strategy on the American side, if Donald Trump really goes ahead, a prompt and rapid response from governments will be needed to financially support our manufacturers. The economic vitality and jobs in our regions are at stake.”

However, Conseil du patronat du Québec Chief Economist Norma Kozhaya said that tariffs are bad for both sides at stake.

“Actually, one economist has estimated that a 10 percent tariff would imply a cost of $1,100 per person in Canada and in the U.S.,” she said.

All Quebec products could be affected, whether in aeronautics, forestry, agriculture or even electricity exports. 

“Electricity, like aluminum, I think that United States needs us. So, that’s exactly what Christine (Fréchette) is doing right now industry per industry to see where does he need us, where can he replace us,” explained Legault.

Concordia University Economics Professor Moshe Lander added that there’s limited options where Quebec could ship their energy.

“The thing with hydroelectricity is that it’s not something that you can bottle up and stick on a ship and send to Europe,” he said. “So, there’s a limited number of options as to where you can export it and unfortunately, that’s the American Northeast. So, it’s worked very well for us but at some point, if the Americans say take your power and light yourselves on fire with it, we don’t really have any alternative.”

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump warned that upon becoming president he would sign an executive order into law on his first day in office on Jan. 20, to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico. Trump cited concerns with illegal immigration and illicit drugs, particularly fentanyl, seeping into the U.S. border.

“This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” Trump wrote.

Trump continued, “we hereby demand that they [Canada and Mexico] use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!”

In reaction to Trump’s statement, the Canadian dollar, and the Mexican peso experienced minor declines during the night.

During his first term, Trump had also threatened to increase tariffs, but following trade agreements, he ultimately did not do so.

Such an import fee would affect our economy, driving up costs for Canadian and Mexican goods in their most critical market.

“Interest rate changes could change and the impact on the Canadian dollar could also be affected as well because if all of a sudden, there’s not as much production going on in Canada, the Canadian dollar could weaken even further. So, for anybody who’s looking to escape the winter weather in this country, it might not be the time to plan a Vegas getaway.”

Given that there’s no real comparison in terms of issues between the northern and southern borders, some political analysts are speculating that this could be more a negotiating ploy than an actual plan. However, Trump has imposed tariffs in the past.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford also expressed concerns, saying on social media that a 25 per cent tariff would be “devastating to workers and jobs” in both Canada and the U.S.

Canada’s top export to the United States is oil, while some of the top products Quebec exports to the U.S. are metals, aircraft, and mineral fuels.

Marc Tanguay says Quebec needs to appoint a chief negotiator

The Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) is demanding Legault to immediately appoint a chief negotiator to defend Quebec’s interests against the Trump administration.

Interim PLQ leader Marc Tanguay said that Trump’s threat to impose 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian products represents a major danger for the Quebec economy. 

He did not want to propose any names, but PLQ candidate Frédéric Beauchemin recommended Raymond Bachand.

Tanguay also recalled that in 2017, Liberal Premier Philippe Couillard designated Bachand for the NAFTA renegotiation. 

A few years earlier, another Liberal, Jean Charest, had entrusted Pierre Marc Johnson with the mandate to negotiate the free trade agreement between Canada and the European Union.  

“When we look at the profile of people who have the skills, who have the network, who also have the maturity and the ability to negotiate and be good negotiators, these are two good examples,” noted Tanguay. 

-With files from La Press Canadienne