‘Quebec is going to be pivotal’ in federal election dominated by tariff talk: political analyst

Quebec has long been an important battleground in federal elections.

It’s considered something of a wildcard – with votes swinging unpredictably between the Bloc Québécois, Liberals, and even the NDP.

The province has 78 of 343 seats in the House of Commons, meaning it could be a deciding factor in the April 28 election.

“Quebec is going to be pivotal,” political analyst Karim Boulos told CityNews.

Boulos says performing well in Quebec is not always needed to form government, pointing to Stephen Harper’s majority in 2011 when the province voted overwhelmingly for Jack Layton’s New Democrats.

But the political analyst says this year, Quebec could be a key – in part because of what’s happening south of the border with Donald Trump, tariffs, and the threat to Canadian sovereignty.

“It’s going to have an impact on the perception of Mr. Poilievre, the perception of Mr. Carney,” Boulos explained. “A certain Canadian revival of sorts.

“Even across Quebec, we’re seeing a little softening about pipeline (Energy) East and ideas about energy independence. Quebec was pretty hardline against it and the environment, but now maybe Quebecers are softening to the idea that we’ve got to look in our own backyard and see what we can do with our own country. And so, we’re seeing a little less of the sovereigntist rhetoric being thrown around.”

CityNews spoke to Quebecers who say tensions with the U.S. are a top concern for them at the ballot box in the federal election.

“Unfortunately, the biggest issue is Trump,” one person said. “We really have to do something against him.”

“Worried about the situation in the States, the tariffs, and who’s best to deal with the situation going forward,” said another.

“I think we’re very much in reaction to what’s happening in the U.S., so we’re focusing a lot less on our issues here,” added a third.

A CityNews-Leger poll found 43 per cent of Quebecers intend to vote for Carney if an election were held today, compared to 27 per cent for Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois and 19 per cent for Poilievre’s Conservatives.

“We are bracing for the impact that the tariffs are going to have,” Boulos said. “We are anticipating a slowdown in the economy, which is already kind of slow. And so one of the criticisms of the Trudeau government was that there was not enough to stimulate our economy and grow our GDP. So that is continuing to be an issue, that’s remaining an issue. And I think that if anything, it’s only going to be more of a concern for voters.”

Boulos also pointed to housing and food security as key issues in the election. That was echoed by some Montrealers who spoke to CityNews.

“Of course, the housing is a big issue in Montreal,” one person said. “Homeless are really a big issue. We really have to take care of that.”

“Hospitals, education,” said another. “We have a lot of things going on in Canada too that you should worry about.”