What’s next for former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s riding?

What’s next for Papineau, the former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s riding? That’s the question being asked as the federal election is quickly approaching.

Densely packed and diverse, Villeray–Saint-Michel–Parc-Extension, which covers most of the Papineau riding, is home to more than 145,000 people, second only to Côte-des-Neiges–Notre-Dame-de-Grâce in population. The average income is $36,480 after taxes, according to Statistics Canada.

It’s been a Liberal stronghold since 1957, with the exception of 2006 when the Bloc Quebecois swept up the seat. 

Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) candidate Marjorie Michel has big shoes to fill, according to political analysts. Her priority issues will be the cost of living and access to housing.

As Trudeau exits, NDP’s Niall Ricardo and Bloc Québécois’ Sophy Forget Bélec both see a chance to challenge the Liberal candidate. Ricardo is focused on housing affordability and a major community centre project, while Forget Bélec promises to stand for Quebec’s interests. 

Despite their push, Michel remains far ahead in the polls, sitting at 64 per cent compared to 12 per cent for the NDP and 10 per cent for the Bloc. The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), who has not announced a candidate, was polling at 9 per cent and the Green Party of Canada’s (GPC) Isabelle Malenfant at 3 per cent. 

Though pollsters predict a 99 per cent win for the Liberals, it’s not won yet–with still over three weeks before election day, Apr. 28.

“Regardless of the personal qualities of the other candidates. I think that, this is a riding that we expect Michel is likely to win,” said Daniel Béland, the director of McGill Insititute for the study of Canada (MISC). “You have this Mark Carney who is perceived as someone steady, you can deal with the current crisis.”

Political analyst and former Liberal MP Eleni Bakopanos says a lot can happen.

“You never know when a political tsunami might hit at any time,” said Bakopanos. “It’s remained significantly multicultural riding and, in the past, most of the cultural communities or immigrants coming to Canada had traditionally voted liberal.”

Many voters CityNews spoke with here are still undecided.

“I’ll probably vote Liberal, I have a good opinion of Mr. Carney, I find him competent, he was already a star before this election,” said one Montrealer CityNews spoke to.

Another saying, “It’s been too long with the Liberals, we need a change and I think the Conservatives are in line with what I’m looking for.”

“I’m going to go with my heart and vote for the Bloc Quebecois,” said one Montrealer. While another added, “I know that we’ll lose, but I’m going to vote Bloc Quebecois because there’s no other party that protects Quebec the way it should be.”

Another Montrealer said, “I’ll vote NDP maybe, because I find their ideas good and in memory of Jack Layton.”

Early voting starts on Apr. 18 and goes through Apr. 21 from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m.