Arthabaska: the unpredictable by-election in Quebec

The by-election in Arthabaska hasn’t even begun yet, but already the attacks are flying between the Parti Québécois and Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives, who seem ready to do anything to wrest this riding from the CAQ.

The coveted constituency has been held by the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) since 2012. 

In the 2022 general election, CAQ candidate Eric Lefebvre won Arthabaska by more than 12,000 votes over Conservative candidate Tarek Henoud. The PQ received only 10 per cent of the vote. 

But nothing is certain for the CAQ now. 

According to current figures from the polling aggregator Qc125, Arthabaska will be a three-way race between the CAQ, the Parti Québécois (PQ) and the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ).

For the CAQ, the risk is greater, because losing this riding would reinforce the feeling that the Legault government is at the end of its tether.

The most recent Léger poll indicates a decline in support for the CAQ. Furthermore, 63 per cent of respondents say they want a change of government.

“Bad message”

The PQ and the PCQ know they have a good chance of winning the riding of Arthabaska. They didn’t wait for the election to officially begin before putting forward their respective candidates. 

Former Radio-Canada journalist Alex Boissonneault is running for the PQ.

The PQ hopes to repeat Jean-Talon’s feat, that is, to win a riding that is unlikely to vote for their political party. It has been more than 25 years since Arthabaska voters last sent a PQ member to the National Assembly. 

“If the PQ goes all out and concentrates its resources, they have a chance of winning and that would send a bad message,” said Qc125 creator Philippe J. Fournier in an interview with The Canadian Press. 

This is all the more true since the PQ won the last two by-elections: Jean-Talon and Terrebonne.

“Anyone but Duhaime”

Duhaime, although he enjoys great notoriety, must deal with the fact that he is “polarizing,” says Philippe J. Fournier. 

According to him, there could be an “anyone but Duhaime” effect in Arthabaska. 

There are Conservative roots in the riding. Its federal counterpart, Richmond—Arthabaska, has been represented by the Conservative Party of Canada since 2015. (The riding, however, was Bloc Québécois from 2004 to 2015.)

For Duhaime, this by-election is an opportunity to try to rally CAQ voters disappointed by the fact that their party has not governed to the right despite their leader’s initial promises. 

“The fact that Duhaime is running, I would be willing to say that it is not a coincidence. He must have taken the time to feel out the situation, to see if he had a chance, so as not to suffer another defeat,” maintains Philippe J. Fournier. 

The pressure is on the Conservative leader to finally win his first seat. In the 2022 election, the PCQ won 13 per cent of the vote.

A changing constituency 

The political color of Arthabaska has changed several times in recent decades. 

Before the CAQ, Arthabaska belonged to the Liberals from 2003 to 2012, with a brief ADQ interlude between 2007 and 2008. 

From 1989 to 2003, the Centre-du-Québec riding was PQ. 

Even the Union Nationale planted its flag there five times between 1936 and 1966. Arthabaska voters are therefore anything but committed to a political party.  

The split vote could contribute to the victory of one of the three leading parties. “I would be very surprised if anyone won by a significant margin,” explains Philippe J. Fournier. 

The Arthabaska riding was created in 1853 and is made up of Plessisville, Victoriaville and Saint-Ferdinand. 

–This report by La Presse Canadienne was translated by CityNews