Quebec Liberals in PQ rearview mirror, CAQ slides: new poll

The effect of new Quebec Liberal leader Pablo Rodriguez is already being felt on the province’s political scene. A poll taken just after his victory shows a rise in Liberal voting intentions. This shift in the electorate is hurting Premier François Legault’s Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ).

According to the Pallas Data poll published on Tuesday, the Parti québécois (PQ) still leads in voting intentions at 31 per cent. But the Liberal troops, now led by Rodriguez, are not far behind at 26 per cent.

The previous Pallas Data poll published in March 2025 placed the Liberals at 22 per cent.

The shockwave caused by the arrival of the new Liberal leader is shaking the already fragile support of the CAQ, which finds itself in third place, 11 points behind the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ). In March, the CAQ was at 20 per cent of voting intentions, according to the same polling firm.

Legault’s party is statistically tied with Éric Duhaime’s Conservative Party. Québec solidaire (QS) came last with 12 per cent of voting intentions.

Another surprise in this poll was the Liberals’ rise in the French-speaking electorate to 19 per cent. The previous poll by the same polling firm put them at 14 per cent among this segment of the electorate.

This puts the PLQ in second place among Francophones, but well behind the PQ, which leads with 38 per cent.

A Léger poll published in May, before the end of the Liberal race, indicated that if the PLQ chose Rodriguez as its leader, it would rise to 31 per cent of voting intentions, a statistical tie with the PQ.

The next general election will be held in October 2026.

This poll, commissioned by poll aggregator Qc125, was conducted from June 14 to 16, 2025, among a random sample of 1,085 Quebec respondents aged 18 and over. The margin of error for the full sample is ±3 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

–This report by La Presse Canadienne was translated by CityNews