Two days until Montreal elects a new mayor, but one third of voters still undecided

With just two days until Montrealers choose their next mayor, a new Pallas Data poll suggests Ensemble Montréal leader Soraya Martinez Ferrada has a clear lead — but with nearly one in three voters still undecided, the race is far from over.

The survey, conducted Oct. 25 among 608 voters, shows Martinez Ferrada with 33 per cent support, while Projet Montréal leader Luc Rabouin trails at 18 per cent. Another 29 per cent of voters say they have yet to make up their minds.

Action Montréal’s Gilbert Thibodeau is polling at 11 per cent, Transition Montréal’s Craig Sauvé at five per cent and Futur Montréal’s Jean-François Kacou at three per cent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Political analyst and former Liberal MP Eleni Bakopanos says that high level of indecision could make the outcome difficult to predict.

“That’s hard to predict, first of all, because you’re counting on those 29 per cent not voting either for Ensemble Montréal or Projet Montréal,” she said.

As election day nears, both leading candidates are making their final appeals to voters.

“We are working for the people who live in Montreal, who choose to live here and want to stay here long-term,” said Rabouin at a press conference Friday morning.

“We’ll be an administration that collaborates, that’s accessible and respectful, one that listens and acts on what Montrealers need,” Martinez Ferrada said at her own press conference, also Friday morning.

The poll also highlights a clear divide among voters: Ensemble Montréal performs strongly among non-francophone voters and those aged 50 and over, while younger and francophone voters lean more toward Projet Montréal.

Despite a pilot project allowing students to vote early at CEGEPs and universities, analysts warn turnout among young people could still lag. Martinez Ferrada said engaging younger voters remains a challenge.

“It’s very important that they understand what’s at stake for them,” she said. “I don’t think they feel that, so it is an issue. Hopefully, on Sunday, we’ll have a bigger turnout.”

Some Montrealers say their decision may depend on how visible the campaigns have been.

“I received nothing from Projet Montréal, not even a phone call or a pamphlet,” said Bakopanos. “But from Ensemble Montréal, someone came to my door, left a leaflet, and clearly outlined how to vote.”

On the streets of Montreal, many voters expressed frustration with long-standing city issues, from construction to homelessness.

“I think everyone would like to see fewer roadworks,” said cyclist Constantin Khetchoumian. “The city is old, the work needs to be done, but maybe just done a little more intelligently.”

“Whoever gets elected needs to actually take care of the homeless problem,” said resident David McLean. “That’s the number one priority.”

“Less construction,” added Alex Durieux. “It’s impossible to get around, especially downtown.”

Others, however, were more skeptical that a new administration will bring real change.

“Everyone promises, you know?” said Virginia. “We’ll see.”

“I’m not sure, it just seems like the problem is the system,” added Khetchoumian.

Montrealers will head to the polls Sunday, Nov. 2, from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m.