Quebec votes 2026: New poll shows CAQ catching up with PQ

A day after the official launch of the election campaign, a new poll shows the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) Leader and outgoing Premier Christine Fréchette’s popularity among voters is reversing the party’s fortunes.

According a voter intention survey by Synopsis-La Presse released Friday, Parti Québécois (PQ) continues its frontrunner status to form the next government with the support of 28 per cent of Quebecers. However, the CAQ is in a statistical tie with 27 per cent of voters throwing their support — an increase of seven percentage points compared to a previous poll by the same pollster.

“I think that before commenting on this particular poll, I’ll wait for other polls,” said Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, Parti Québécois (PQ) leader. “The polling firms we’ve seen most often in recent years are Léger and Pallas.” 

Much of CAQ’s gains seem to come from Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) who dropped to 20 per cent, losing six percentage points over two weeks.

“What that poll tells us and also previous polls is that that messaging hasn’t been able to stick,” said Tran. “What they need to do right now is, yes, of course, reinforce the leadership of Charles Milliard, putting him out there, putting the team out there, but also take risk.”

The Conservatives (PCQ) and Québec solidaire (QS) had 14 per cent and 10 per cent of favourability among those surveyed.

“A poll is a picture at a specific time in day,” said Daniel Tran, political analyst. “So right now, of course Christine Fréchette and her team are very happy. “The picture is for today, however things can change very drastically. And to see if there’s a real trend going on for the support for Christine Fréchette and her party, we’ll have to see a couple of polls going on as well.”

Fréchette, who called U.S. President Donald Trump was her “main opponent”, is also trusted the most by voters with 46 per cent of Quebecers saying that the premier was best-positioned to take on the trade war with the United States.

“Well, we saw one clear tactic and Donald Trump has been very vocal about it,” said Tran. “It’s even in his book, distract, delay, deny. So in this case there’s a lot of distraction happening because yes, we have elections, but let’s keep in mind that they have elections on their end too. Midterms elections are coming. So of course, yes, there is an interference in our elections, but ultimately he’s trying to secure seats for their own election as well. So it’s hitting two birds with one stone.”

About 37 per cent of respondents chose PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and 26 per cent said PLQ Leader Charles Milliard would protect Quebecers interests in the ongoing trade challenges with the Americans.

The voter intention poll was conducted among 867 respondents between Aug. 24 and 26.

“Right now, if they really aspire to hold power, they have to take risk, have bold ideas to make sure that we are hearing about them instead of just letting the others being able to speak,” added Tran.

CityNews spoke to some voters to see who they plan to vote for.

“I will support the Parti Québécois because I don’t know, I think we should keep our gang, our Québécois gang, with together and all of us together to the top and maybe the price of everything is going to get low if we help each other,” said Mathys Mallettie, Saint-Lin resident.

“A couple of years ago I voted, it was my first election and I voted for Parti Québécois,” said Rylan Wolowicz, Montrealer. “I think that what they stand for was what I stand for as well. And I think that Fréchette, she’s got a lot of good things coming towards her.”

“I don’t even know who I will vote,” said Caroline Faucher, Montrealer. “I don’t think with Parti Québécois it’s to talk about referendum is a good thing in that moment. “And about Christine Fréchette, I don’t even know. I’ve been disappointed with la CAQ the last few years.”