Latest Quebec election poll: PQ holds lead, CAQ inches ahead of Liberals

The Parti Québécois remains first in Quebec voting intentions, but the race is tightening as the CAQ moves into a clear second place.

A new Léger poll for Le Journal and TVA Nouvelles has the PQ at 29 per cent among decided voters, down one point from last week.

“We are solid. Our word is reliable. We have done good work. It’s up to you to decide,” said PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.

The CAQ gained one point to reach 24 per cent, while the Quebec Liberal Party dropped one point to 22 per cent.

“Those disappointed by the Liberal Party’s leadership should consider joining the Coalition Avenir Québec,” said CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette. “And in fact, I believe several have already done so.”

The poll suggests Fréchette’s recent momentum may be slowing. The CAQ gained three points last week following the breakdown of trade negotiations with the Trump administration, but its latest one-point increase falls within the poll’s margin of error.

“Fréchette has been desperately trying to save her own skin ever since she became leader of the Coalition Avenir Québec,” said Liberal Leader Charles Milliard.

The poll also found the Conservative Party of Quebec has 15 per cent support, down one point, while Québec solidaire rises three points to 10 per cent.

“This morning, what pleases me is that for the first time in history, at least for me, it’s the first time as a leader that this has happened to me, the Léger polling firm is putting us in the lead in the Quebec City region,” said Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime.

“Today I’m making a plea to those who are undecided,” added Ruba Ghazal, the Québec solidaire co-leader. “The number of undecided voters is quite significant at this early stage of the campaign. And I’m asking them to listen to Québec solidaire’s commitments.”

If the poll is accurate, it suggests Quebecers could elect a minority government on Oct. 5.

“Right now, if we had an election today, it will likely be a minority government, probably a PQ minority government,” said McGill University political science professor Daniel Béland. “But again, there’s still about what, more than 40 per cent of voters who are still undecided or say that they could still change their vote. And considering how tight the polls are right now, a lot of things can happen between now and October 5th.”

Some Montrealers reacted to the prospect of a minority government on Tuesday.

“Personally, I’m comfortable with a minority government. I think governments need to work together. They need to cooperate with each other,” said Nassim Setouche.

“There can be positives from having a minority government because it forces all the parties to step to the table to come to an amicable resolution for Quebecers,” said Olivia Beer.

“Well, it just means that no party can do the job. Really. I really believe that,” added Heather Craft.

Tariffs remain an important campaign issue, with 53 per cent of Quebecers saying they are among the important issues facing voters. However, just 10 per cent consider tariffs the most important issue.

The survey also finds 66 per cent support imposing counter-tariffs on certain American products, even if that means higher prices for Canadian consumers.

Moshe Lander, a Concordia University economist, says that if there is a minority government elected, he anticipates the parties would work together to provide support for sectors impacted by the trade war with the United States.

“I think all of the parties are going to come out in support of the idea that tariffs are wrong and that support needs to be provided to those sectors that are being hit hard by the tariffs,” Lander said. “So it’s really going to be in the details. Who’s going to do what with the tax rates? Who’s going to do what with social programs? Who’s going to provide the most support or the least support to workers that are affected in the steel and aluminum industries?”

The race could still shift significantly, with 42 per cent of decided voters saying their choice is not final.

The poll was conducted online from Aug. 28 to 31 among 1,008 Quebecers eligible to vote. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.09 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.