‘Double shock’: Montreal area business groups warn strict immigration policy will hurt Quebec’s finances, shrink labour force

Montreal area business groups are sounding the alarm to Quebec political parties that current strict immigration policies could significantly hurt the province’s finances and the economy and demanded the next government to reverse course.

In a study released Wednesday, the Regroupement des chambres de commerce du Grand Montréal warned that without increasing the immigration levels there will be a “double shock” — a decline in labour force while the number of people who depend on government benefits increases, given Quebec’s aging population.

“Those impacts will be major — for Montreal, but also for Quebec,” said Jean-Denis Charest, president and CEO of the Montreal East Chamber of Commerce, during a press conference in Montreal.

According to the study, in one scenario the Greater Montreal region could lose up to 142,000 people over the next 25 years, including 113,000 by 2035, particularly among those aged 20 to 64.

The decline would increase the number of proportion of seniors to working-age population from 51.7 in 2025 to 63.2 by 2051.

“Quebec cannot afford a population decline in its metropolitan area, especially when it is accompanied by such a significant increase in the dependency ratio,” said Charest

“Fewer workers and greater needs—that’s an equation that would weaken our economy and place major pressure on public finances throughout Quebec.”

The study comes as Quebec faces a major demographic shift.  Deaths in the province outpaced the amount of births for the first time in 2024. Meanwhile, immigration has been mainly responsible for population growth since 2022.

“Quebec has undergone a dramatic transformation in the past few years and it will continue in that direction,” said Isabelle Dessureault, president and CEO of the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal.

The study was based on a survey of 470 businesses in the Greater Montreal region. More than three in four companies said that immigrant workers play an essential role in maintaining the day-to-day operations. About 85 per cent expect to hire economic immigrants, with 62 per cent saying they expect to see an increase in demand for skilled immigrants in the next three years.

About 73 per cent of the survey respondents also said that uncertainty and delays in the government’s immigration processes were a major obstacle to immigration.

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The consortium called on political parties to raise permanent immigration to at least 60,000 annually from the current 45,000, which the study says could lead to a decline in population in the Greater Montreal area.

“For us, it’s not so much about how many, but it’s a question of predictability,” said Frédérick Perrier, director general, Grand-Roussillon Chamber of Commerce.

It also recommended developing a province-wide immigration strategy with consultation with cities, businesses, labour unions and experts.

“We need to be much more strategic than what we’ve heard so far from all the parties,” Charest said. “We feel right now that the debate is not at the right place.”

Desserreault also echoed Charest and called for depoliticizing the immigration policy.

Among other recommendations, the group called for creating a Quebec-specific model for integration of immigrants taking into account the capacities of different regions.

It also called for prioritizing immigration in sectors facing labour shortages like health care, education and construction.

“This alignment also requires accelerated recognition of skills in priority sectors and the retention of individuals who are already established, French-speaking, and integrated in Quebec,” the consortium said.

The group also said it wants the government to maintain the fast-track pathway — Quebec Experience Program (PEQ) — to permanent immigration for temporary residents.

“When people are already here they add less pressure to our integration capacity,” Charest said. “People that are already on the territory, already working are much easier to keep.”