A cool, dry fall in the forecast for Quebec

MONTREAL – While the summer in Quebec was marked by climatic disturbances, the fall promises to be rather dry, with temperatures slightly below seasonal norms.

After a season marked by forest fires, floods, tornado warnings and late heatwaves, the weather forecast calls for a fall without major upheavals, at least for Quebec and Ontario.

According to MeteoMedia forecasts, temperatures over the next few weeks will be close to normal, or slightly below, in both provinces.

Cool air arriving as early as October could give the impression of an early winter.

“We’re going to have a rather mild, rather pleasant September, but at mid-season, somewhere in October, we should have a few significant bursts of cool air that should last several weeks and make us feel like winter”, but “we’re expecting the pendulum to swing back in November and early December with above-normal temperatures”, explained André Monette, head of meteorology at Météomédia.

A dry autumn

Precipitation and the number of storms should be below normal, and Quebec and Ontario will experience a rather dry autumn, according to The Weather Network.

“We’re forecasting a precipitation deficit for the more northerly regions, but closer-to-normal precipitation for the St. Lawrence Valley, and probably fewer fall storms, but when they do occur, they could be stronger.”

Big storms like the one that caused strong winds on Halloween last year in certain regions could occur due to “large systems that could have significant repercussions”, according to the meteorologist.

“We’re forecasting a lot of mildness in the western part of the country and in the southern U.S., which could lead to a big temperature contrast between the cold in Hudson Bay and the heat in the southern U.S.. The bigger the contrast, the bigger the storms can be,” explained André Monette.

Météomédia has yet to give an opinion on the winter season, but “the start of winter should be mild”, said the meteorologist.

A hurricane season to watch in the Maritimes

The Maritimes should see temperatures closer to normal in the fall, as the warm Atlantic Ocean favors mildness for Nova Scotia and the Avalon Peninsula, according to The Weather Network.

However, abnormally warm waters in the Atlantic Ocean can also amplify storms and hurricanes, which should be monitored until the second half of October.

In fact, Environment Canada is closely monitoring when Tropical Storm Lee is expected to make its turn to the northwest, and expects it to impact the region by the weekend.

Precipitation deficit may encourage wildfires in the West

Temperatures in the western provinces are expected to be above seasonal norms, due in part to El NiIno.

According to André Monette, “the risk of drought and fire in the first half of the season should be closely monitored, as precipitation will be close to or below normal over most of the territory.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on Sept. 13, 2023.