CAQ ‘really in trouble’ after losing Terrebonne byelection to PQ, political scientist says

Voters northeast of Montreal in the riding of Terrebonne turned their backs on the Coalition Avenir Québec during Monday’s byelection, leading to a decisive victory for the Parti Québécois.

The new PQ MNA Catherine Gentilcore won the riding with more than 52 per cent of the vote, further hinting at the swelling support for Quebec’s sovereigntist party in the leadup to next year’s provincial election.

“When you have a byelection, it’s often a test for the the government in power. Obviously the CAQ failed that test yesterday,” said Daniel Béland, Director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada.

Quebec Premier François Legault quickly conceded the election Monday night, congratulating Gentilcore but telling CAQ supporters they intend to take the riding back in 18 months. The CAQ garnered just over 28 per cent of the vote.

Gentilcore’s victory in Terrebonne comes six months after the resignation of former CAQ cabinet “superminister” Pierre Fitzgibbon and represents the PQ’s fifth seat out of 125 in the National Assembly. It’s also the party’s second consecutive byelection win after Pascal Paradis overtook the CAQ in Quebec City’s Jean-Talon riding in October 2023.

“The first issue I’m going to address is to serve the citizens because they have been without voice for six months now,” Gentilcore said Tuesday at her first appearance at the National Assembly.

With the province’s next general election set for October 2026, some Terrebonne voters are thinking about the economy, with many saying the sovereigntist party could guarantee a shield for Quebecers against U.S. tariffs.

“It all comes back to what happens with Trump and who will be able to protect us. Who will believe in us Quebecers and inspire us to stand up together?” said one resident, a mother of 13 who added the rising cost of living has caused her weekly grocery bills to balloon.

“I would have liked to separate from Canada, but we aren’t there yet,” said another.

“I am pretty undecided at this point, but I like the PQ,” a third said.

Despite only representing a fraction of the seats in the National Assembly, the PQ currently enjoys a 12-point lead in polling over the governing CAQ, who were recently overtaken by the leaderless Liberals earlier this month. However, according to Béland, the CAQ and the other four major parties still have time to rally voter support ahead of the next election.

“I think there is more introspection needed at the CAQ because they are really in trouble,” Béland said.

He added that both Liberals and Québec solidaire could gain votes in the run-up to the election by extending their base, the latter of which has been “really, really struggling.” The Conservative party, Béland said, after having gained two points in the polls this month, also has the potential to win seats in the wake of the CAQ’s drop in popularity.