Quebec is the Canadian province that most opposes its sovereignty

Surprisingly, Quebecers are currently the least sovereignist of all Canadians.

A Léger poll on provincial sovereignty, conducted for The Canadian Press in the context of Alberta’s apparent sovereignist inclinations, reveals that Quebec has the highest proportion of citizens saying they are “against” provincial sovereignty, at 59 per cent.

However, the proportion of Quebecers who are “for” provincial sovereignty is not the lowest in Canada by a long shot, standing at 33 per cent, compared to 22 per cent in British Columbia and 23 per cent in the Atlantic provinces, both of which are the least in favour of their respective provincial sovereignty.

This gap is explained by the fact that Quebecers are the least likely (8 per cent) to say “don’t know” or refuse to answer, compared to the Canadian average of 17 per cent.

Sovereignty: Stable Support and Opposition

These results for Quebec, however, do not surprise pollster Sébastien Dallaire, Executive Vice-President at Léger, at all. “The 33 per cent support level for sovereignty is similar to what we’ve been measuring for several months in Quebec. And if it may seem surprising to see 59 per cent opposition to the province’s sovereignty, which is higher than elsewhere in the country, it’s because Quebecers are used to asking the question and being asked it, which means that there are far fewer who don’t know,” he points out.

Another survey finding points in the same direction: nearly a quarter (23 per cent) of Bloc voters oppose Quebec sovereignty. “It’s similar to what we’re measuring for the Parti Québécois right now, in particular.” In fact, in our latest survey, a third of Parti Québécois voters said they were not in favor of Quebec sovereignty,” continues Dallaire.

“We know that, for the Parti Québécois, this is indeed a source of concern. If the Parti Québécois, as planned, starts talking about a referendum in its first term during the next election campaign, there is a significant portion of its electorate that isn’t too keen on the idea, so it could become a problem.”

Alberta Sovereignty

It’s in Alberta where the highest number of respondents are in favour of their province’s sovereignty—41 per cent when the question is answered simply yes or no, and up to 47 per cent when the question adds nuances. This response from Albertans suggests a very close fratricidal struggle if a referendum ever materializes, since the proportion of those opposed to provincial sovereignty stands at 44 per cent for the yes or no question and reaches 48 per cent with the same nuances, a difference of barely one point, which is below the potential margin of error.

“In both cases, the clear-cut question and the nuanced question, we’re very close, aren’t we?” emphasizes Dallaire. “Right now, there is indeed a fairly strong feeling in Alberta that things need to change, and there is a fairly significant pool of support that we must take seriously. This very clear feeling of alienation doesn’t necessarily make them separatists, but it is very divided. We’ll see how it evolves. We’ll have to be cautious in our analysis of the coming months. A lot can happen between now and then, but it’s still a subject that must be taken seriously.”

Albertans, however, are not misunderstood by Confederation, as a majority of Canadians (55 per cent) say they understand why Alberta would want to separate, a proportion that rises to 70 per cent among Albertans themselves.

Others Dissatisfied

The dissatisfaction doesn’t stop there, argues Dallaire, even if the percentages of respondents in favor of their province’s independence are not as high. “What’s interesting is to see that, in other provinces as well, there’s a feeling of alienation that’s still somewhat palpable. We see it in Ontario, with 31 per cent supporting sovereignty, and in the Manitoba-Saskatchewan bloc, with 35 per cent.”

Unsurprisingly, he adds, analysis of the data by political affiliation also shows that “it’s largely Conservative voters who are frustrated by the election results.” Another Liberal victory after years of Conservative voters expressing their discontent? It’s a hard pill to swallow for these supporters.

Limited Trust

When asked about their trust in governments, 51 per cent expressed confidence in the federal and municipal governments and 47 per cent in their provincial government. It’s worth noting, however, that this is limited trust, since only 6 per cent or 7 per cent of respondents expressed absolute confidence in these governments.

The confidence of the others is only partial.

Surprisingly, trust in the federal government is highest in Quebec (60 per cent), but in British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, where provincial governments enjoy the greatest trust (56 per cent) from their citizens. It should come as no surprise that trust in the federal government is lowest in Alberta, at 37 per cent.

The survey was conducted online from May 16 to 18 with 1,537 respondents. Although it does not have a margin of error because it is conducted online, Léger specifies that an equivalent probability survey would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

–This report by La Presse Canadienne was translated by CityNews