New poll shows Ensemble Montréal continues to lead in mayoral race

A new Segma Research poll shows Ensemble Montréal leader Soraya Martinez Ferrada ahead in the race for mayor, but with more than a third of voters still undecided, the outcome remains far from certain.

The survey, commissioned by Radio-Canada, suggests Martinez Ferrada has the support of 26 per cent of decided voters.

Projet Montréal’s Luc Rabouin trails at 18 per cent, while Action Montréal’s Gilbert Thibodeau sits at 8 per cent.

Transition Montréal leader Craig Sauvé follows with 5 per cent, and Futur Montréal’s Jean-François Kacou holds 3 per cent.

Segma president Raynald Harvey says Martinez Ferrada’s advantage stems largely from support among Anglophone and Allophone Montrealers.
While Francophone voters, who tend to turn out in higher numbers, remain more evenly split between her and Rabouin.

The poll found 37 per cent of respondents have yet to make up their minds.

The poll also found that 55 per cent of respondents were dissatisfied with outgoing mayor Valérie Plante’s performance.

Independent hopefuls Fang Hu, Jean Duval and Katy Le Rougetel each drew 1 per cent support or less.

Advance polls are set for Oct. 26 (12 p.m. to 8 p.m.), with voting day on Nov. 2 (10 a.m. to 8 p.m.)

The Segma Research poll commissioned by Radio-Canada was conducted from October 3 to 9, 2025, via web panel and telephone, among 1,002 residents of Montreal, 504 residents of Laval, and 500 residents of Longueuil registered on the electoral list.

The portion of the sample drawn from a panel does not allow for the calculation of a margin of error, but as an indication, a probabilistic sample of the same size would have a margin of error of 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20. The survey results were weighted by age, gender, education, and language spoken at home according to 2021 census data in order to accurately represent the target population.