Blanchet considers federal elections before autumn 2026 to be “very possible”

Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet believes it is “very possible” that he will find himself in an election campaign before the fall of 2026, that is, when his sister political party, the Parti Québécois, will be in full operation to seduce voters in an attempt to form the next Quebec government.

“I wouldn’t go so far as to say (very likely), but surviving the spring will be a big challenge for the Liberals,” said Blanchet about the troops of federal Prime Minister Mark Carney.

The Parti Québécois will certainly be campaigning next fall, since provincial elections are scheduled.

The leader of the Bloc Québécois, approaching 2026, anticipates that he too could soon find himself going door-to-door given the record of the Liberals which he deplores.

“Everything is possible. Everything is plausible in terms of scenarios,” he added during a year-end interview with The Canadian Press. Blanchet reached this conclusion because, according to him, the Liberals “weren’t prudent enough to make friends.”

By friends, he means dance partners that every minority government must find on a case-by-case basis to advance its legislative agenda…as well as to survive each vote of confidence that comes its way.

“I don’t see a government that’s mindful of its own longevity,” Blanchet stated. According to him, the Liberals have not shown any real openness, so far, to agreeing to the Bloc Québécois’ demands for the party to support Bill C-15, the implementation bill for Budget 2025.

The Liberals survived a confidence vote on the budget in November, but more will come later in the parliamentary study of the legislative piece.

“If he’s not careful, he’ll drown.”

The Bloc believes that the moment when a fateful confidence vote would come could occur in the spring, but the Carney government could find itself “particularly vulnerable from the beginning of 2026.”

This vulnerability could be fueled in particular by “the current upheavals within the Liberal Party, both internally and in public opinion,” believes Blanchet. He points out that prominent environmentalist Steven Guilbeault resigned from cabinet because of the Liberals’ abandonment of new measures aimed at addressing climate change.

The Bloc leader also believes that Carney is falling in the voters’ esteem because he has not delivered on the main promises he made during the election campaign, such as resolving the trade conflict with the American administration of Donald Trump.

“You shouldn’t promise things you can’t deliver. That’s why at the beginning of his term, Mark Carney was walking on water. Now he’s down to his knees, and it’s getting down to his waist. And if he’s not careful, he’s going to drown.”

The government’s House Leader, Steven MacKinnon, has a different take on the situation. With the fall parliamentary session having just concluded, he gives a positive assessment of the work done by the Liberals and criticizes the opposition parties for their obstructionist tactics – a reproach he directs particularly at the Conservatives.

“I continue to believe that this Parliament can work, but it is up to the Conservatives to take their job a little more seriously,” he argues.

Asked whether an election is looming given the Liberals’ difficulty in finding dance partners, MacKinnon replied that he “thinks the last thing Canadians want is an election.”

Blanchet counters that it is up to the Liberals to find the necessary support to pass their legislative agenda, not the opposition parties.

When the Carney government survived the November confidence vote on the 2025 budget, it all came down to a handful of NDP and Conservative MPs who chose to abstain. Green Party leader Elizabeth May decided to support the Liberals in this close vote because Carney had publicly committed to meeting Canada’s 2030 and 2035 climate targets.

However, May has since said she regrets that vote. As for the New Democratic Party, it is difficult to predict how it will vote in the future.

Blanchet points out that the New Democrats will choose their next leader at the end of March and that, among the Conservatives, their leader Pierre Poilievre will submit in January to a vote of confidence from the members of the political party.

“If Pierre Poilievre wins his confidence vote by a significant margin and if the NDP realizes that British Columbia is the only place where they can make significant gains and perhaps regain recognized party status, the government will be in serious jeopardy starting at the end of March.”

Another election could still be avoided

So how is the Bloc preparing for a potential federal election? Blanchet replies that the priorities his political party will put forward in the coming months will be the same ones that are already well known.

For example, the Bloc Québécois have been calling for years for an increase in the old-age pension for seniors aged 65 to 74 equivalent to that granted to those aged 75 and over.

Blanchet believes that an election is still avoidable for the Liberals. He recommends that they “make clear proposals that are good for Quebec and that the Bloc Québécois will support because they are good for Quebec.”

“They have already had many opportunities and they have refused,” he laments. “On top of that, they are striking a nerve with Quebecers, that is, wanting to disavow the notwithstanding clause, attacking the French language, attacking the value of secularism, and harming Quebec culture.”

As for the involvement of the Bloc Québécois in the election campaign that the Parti Québécois will conduct in the fall of 2026, Blanchet affirms that his troops will respond to the demands of those of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, once they are formulated.

One thing is certain: he is pleased that Quebec is “perhaps” preparing to hold its next referendum on sovereignty. “I would never compare myself to a larger-than-life figure like Lucien Bouchard, but I have the job today that he had in 1995.”

–This report by La Presse Canadienne was translated by CityNews