Shifting political landscape: What does Legault’s resignation mean for Quebec’s opposition parties?

With Premier François Legault stepping aside and clearing the way for a new CAQ leader, what does this mean for the province’s other political parties ahead of the October election?

Questions are swirling about the immediate future of Quebec’s political landscape, including how Legault’s resignation affects the Parti Québécois’ stranglehold in the polls or the ongoing Liberal leadership race.

Political analyst Daniel Tran believes Legault stepping down has the potential to benefit any party – even the CAQ itself.

“Obviously at this moment for the Parti Québécois, they have a strong leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, that we know where he stands. He’s been fighting, getting more and more momentum with more deputies elected at the National Assembly. So clearly that’s a great advantage for him.

“The Liberal Party of Quebec right now also has a leadership race after Pablo Rodriguez stepped down. We have two names at the moment, but based on what we’re seeing today, it’s most likely going to be Charles Milliard for his background, for all the people who have been rallying behind him.”

Tran says the election is far away and a lot can happen in nine months.

“There’s one thing that’s sure in elections is that there’s nothing ever guaranteed.”

The leaders of Quebec’s opposition parties reacted to Legault stepping down with customary polite messages that recognized his contribution to the province – despite disagreeing on multiple issues.

On the ground, politicians and every-day Montrealers alike did not seem overly shocked by the decision.

“We think it was the only answer, in a time where the population of Quebec has lost confidence,” said Alejandra Zaga Mendez, a Québec solidaire MNA for Verdun and the party’s Whip.

“We’ve seen over the last few months and a few years that the government has not been delivering the services and programs that people expect and deserve,” said Elisabeth Prass, the Quebec Liberal MNA for D’arcy-McGee.

“I guess he took a decision to leave the chance to some other candidates, so it’s probably a wise decision,” said Montrealer Marc-Antoine Pelletier.

“Good news. Need a fresh start. New blood,” added Virginia Elliott.

“I didn’t like him in power,” said Andrew Kliger.

“Probably what it says is everybody kind of sees the writing on the wall that the PQ is going to come in soon-ish and they’re getting out of Dodge,” said Jake McConville.

According to a Pallas Data survey released Tuesday among decided voters, the PQ remains the frontrunner in the race with 34 per cent, followed by the PLQ with 24 per cent and the CAQ with 11 per cent.

“I think there’s not a lot of Quebecers who were surprised today,” said Conservative Party of Quebec Leader Éric Duhaime.

“We’ve never seen a government so unpopular.”

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Though St-Pierre Plamondon has long appeared to be on his way to becoming premier, Montrealers are mixed about whether the PQ momentum will stick through to October.

“One wonders whether people really want to go vote for the PQ if he sticks to his word, Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon, and guarantees that there will be a referendum in a first mandate,” said Jonathan Kalles, the vice-president of McMillan Vantage and the former Quebec advisor to Justin Trudeau.

“I hope they don’t. Because I’m not a separatist,” said Montrealer Chella Kerr.

“They worry about things that don’t really matter to the majority of Quebec people,” said Anne-Marie Papillon of the PQ.

“That’s a big problem because that’s not who I want to vote for,” said Kliger.

The CAQ now joins the Liberals in having to run a leadership race in the months leading up to an election.

“I’ve never seen that,” said Duhaime.

“It’s kind of something very unique. But for us, you know, we’re gonna focus, talk to Quebecers while the parties are looking to solve their internal battles.”

The Liberals will announce their new leader by March 14 after Pablo Rodriguez resigned in December.

“I think that once we have an established leader, and we saw it when Mr. Rodriguez was the new leader, that the polls did go up,” Prass said. “So I think that once we have someone established, the PQ people will start looking elsewhere.”

“The Liberals in that (Pallas) poll are only 10 points behind them,” Kalles said. “It’s a big 10 points; with those numbers, they would form majority government PQ. But that’s a Liberal party that has no leader right now. So I think it’s really anybody’s game.”

–With files from Zachary Cheung