Terrebonne byelection: Liberals one seat away from majority as voters head to polls

Voters in the Quebec riding of Terrebonne are preparing to head to the polls Monday for a federal byelection — one that will see the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois fight over a seat that could belong to a new majority government.

The riding, located about 45 minutes north of Montreal, is one of three across the country holding votes, as the Liberals sit just one seat shy of having the most seats in the House of Commons.

On the ground, opinions among voters remain mixed.

“(Carney) always spoke in English. So for me, it wasn’t looking too good. But now, I think he’s putting in the effort and I think he’s truly going to defend our interests,” one resident said.

Another voter expressed concern about Quebec’s place in federal priorities:

“I know that (Carney) occupies himself more with the rest of Canada rather than Quebec. I’ve never really see him talk about us.”

Others questioned the influence of the Bloc Québécois:

“Right now, I feel like the Bloc… They don’t have enough say, and it doesn’t amount to anything.”

The last vote in Terrebonne came down to the wire. Liberal Tatiana Auguste was initially declared the winner, before losing to Bloc Québécois candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné after validation. A judicial recount flipped the result by a single vote, and a mail-in ballot issue ultimately brought the case to the Supreme Court, which overturned the result.

Now, voters are heading back to the polls, seeking a clear outcome.

“It’s really annoying that that it came down to a single vote,” one resident told CityNews. “We’ll just have to go back to the polls and see what happens.”

Liberal majority within reach

The byelection carries added weight for Mark Carney and the Liberals.

The party is currently one seat short of the 172 needed for a majority in the House of Commons. When the three byelections were first called, the Liberals needed to win all of them.

However, after a total of five MPs crossed the floor to join the Liberals, only one victory is now required.

Still, analysts say the results will serve as a broader test of support.

“It’s a test of whether Quebecers are ready to flip,” said political analyst Karim Boulos.

Terrebonne has long been considered a stronghold for the Bloc Québécois, holding the seat since the early 1990s with just one exception in 2011.

Even if the Liberals secure a majority, Boulos warns that a narrow margin could present challenges in governing.

“The pressure then becomes on all the MPs always being present, not having any travel plans, not catching a cold,” he said.

Boulos said the outcome of these byelections could shape the government’s next move — including the possibility of a snap election if the Liberals are looking to strengthen their mandate.

“I think someone as strategic as Mr. Carney would like a better buffer, a stronger message,” he said.