What does Carney’s byelection sweep mean for Quebec’s provincial race?

“I trust Mr. Carney. We got a result in Terrebonne,” said one Montrealer after the Quebec byelection, where Liberal Tatiana Auguste won the seat, one of three victories that pushed the party into majority territory. Lola Kalder reports.

By Lola Kalder

Posted April 14, 2026 3:32 pm.

Last Updated April 14, 2026 4:43 pm.

The federal Liberals now have a majority government after a hat trick in Monday night’s byelections, sweeping all three races across the country.

Two of those victories came quickly in Toronto-area ridings, but the real battle was in Quebec, in Terrebonne.

In a tight race, Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste defeated Bloc Québécois incumbent Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné by 731 votes.

*Supporters for Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste watch results at her party’s federal byelection night gathering in Terrebonne, Que., on Monday, April 13, 2026. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christinne Muschi*

“Right now, it gives Mr. Carney an extra buffer of security with his majority of 174 seats,” said political analyst Karim Boulos. “If someone gets sick, someone isn’t available for a vote, it doesn’t jeopardize bills and plans he wants to do.”

Turnout in Terrebonne reached about 50 per cent, with strong early voting. The byelection was triggered after the Supreme Court of Canada overturned the previous result, where Auguste originally won by a single vote.

“All eyes were on the federal results because Mr. Carney is now a force to be reckoned with. He is now part of the political debate and discourse,” Boulos said.

Meanwhile, new polling in Quebec is turning heads.

The CAQ has dropped to just 13 per cent in voting intentions, while the Liberals and Parti Québécois are locked in a tight race at just over 30 per cent each.

Now with this Liberal win in Terrebonne, a historically Bloc stronghold, questions are emerging about what it could signal ahead of Quebec’s provincial election this October.

Supporters of Bloc Quebecois federal candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagne watch as the results come in at a byelection party, in Terrebonne, Que., Monday, April 13, 2026. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christopher Katsarov

“I think it’s going to have an impact on everybody at the provincial level, so we will see a little bit of jockeying over the next few months as people will want to cozy up,” Boulos predicted.

“Anybody, whether it be provincial Libs, Conservatives or PQ, they will have to take into consideration the Carney effect and how that can shift public opinion slightly.”

CityNews spoke to Quebecers who have been feeling the tide shift at the provincial level.

“Normally, we might have expected the Parti Québécois to have an easy win come October, but I don’t think they’re generating that much excitement. We could see some surprises,” Richard said.

“I’m very happy about it,” said Noemi Denis. “I really trust Mr. Carney. And in the end, we got a result in Terrebonne.”

“I think people are still very worried about Trump and that’s probably what’s still showing up at the polls,” added Sébastien Gauthier.