Poll shows historic level of indecision among Montreal voters ahead of election

Nearly half of Montrealers remain undecided on who to support in the Nov. 2 municipal election, according to a new Léger–TVA–Le Journal poll.

The survey found 48 per cent of eligible voters have yet to make up their minds, more than the combined total of those who currently back a party leader.

Ensemble Montréal’s Soraya Martinez Ferrada leads with 20 per cent, followed by Projet Montréal’s Luc Rabouin at 11 per cent. Transition Montréal’s Craig Sauvé sits at six per cent, while Gilbert Thibodeau of Action Montréal has five per cent. Futur Montréal’s Jean-François Kacou trails with two per cent.

Another two per cent said they would prefer a different candidate, and seven per cent indicated they would not vote at all.

Despite the uncertainty, two-thirds of respondents said they are interested in the campaign.

Pollster Sébastien Dallaire, executive vice-president at Léger, called the level of indecision “historic,” adding that with former mayor Valérie Plante not running again, none of the current candidates are well-known across the city.

He said municipal issues are also struggling to break through, with federal and provincial news, including the SAAQclic scanda, overshadowing the local race.

The poll shows Rabouin facing added challenges as dissatisfaction with Plante’s administration lingers.

60 per cent of respondents said they were dissatisfied with her team’s work at city hall, and only 15 per cent want to see her party continue in office.

The survey also suggests Martinez Ferrada’s support is strongest among men, voters aged 55 and over, and residents of the West Island.

In terms of issues Montrealers were concerned with  45 per cent cared about the cost and access to housing; 44 per cent about the fight against homelessness; 30 per cent about construction sites and traffic; 24 percent about making neighbourhoods safe; and 22 per cent about public transit.

The online poll of 500 eligible voters was conducted from Sept. 15 to 21, aged 18 and over. The results were weighted to ensure a representative sample of the study population. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of ±4.38%, 19 times out of 20.