Statistics Canada says real gross domestic product fell 0.3 per cent in October

Statistics Canada says real gross domestic product was 0.3 per cent lower in October as the manufacturing sector slowed.

The pullback in October came as goods-producing industries fell 0.7 per cent, with manufacturing leading the way lower. Manufacturing output was down 1.5 per cent in the month, StatCan reported.

The agency said the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector shrank 0.6 per cent in October, more than offsetting September’s expansion.

“The Canadian economy was starting to struggle again early in the fourth quarter,” CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham wrote in a note on Tuesday.

“Maintenance work at oilsands facilities contributed to a decline in the mining, oil and gas sector.”

The construction sector posted a decrease for the first time in six months in October, with engineering and construction activities contributing the most to the decline.

Alberta’s provincewide teachers’ strike — which carried on for more than three weeks — weighed on the public sector aggregate, helping to lead to a decline of 0.3 per cent for that category in October.

The agency said its advance estimate for November points to an increase of 0.1 per cent, as activity in the educational, construction and transportation sectors rose.

Grantham said the GDP data likely points to a modest 0.5 per cent annualized contraction for the fourth quarter, “signalling a further increase in slack within the economy, which will dampen bets for interest rate hikes in 2026.”

He is forecasting no change to the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate next year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 23, 2025.

The Canadian Press