31 years after 1995 referendum, Quebec sovereignty back in political conversation

Thirty-one years ago, Quebecers voted on whether to remain part of Canada.

The “No” side won by just over one percentage point on Oct. 30, 1995 — 50.58 per cent to 49.42 per cent, a difference of just 54,288 votes.

Today, with the Parti Québécois back in government, the question of sovereignty is once again part of the political conversation.

Over three decades later, CityNews spoke to Montrealers who were divided on whether Quebec should try again.

“My parents, yes they definitely voted ‘yes’ in the last referendum, back in ’95,” said Pierre Alexandre Landry. “Things will probably go the same way for me if there’s ever another one.”

“I think it’s for this generation. Is it right now? That remains to be seen.”

“The answer is no,” added another Montrealer. “With capital letters and an exclamation mark.”

Daniel Béland, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada, says Quebec’s political landscape is different from 1995 and the likelihood of a third referendum anytime soon is “quite low.”

“But it’s not impossible,” he added.

Quebec Premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon campaigned on holding another referendum but has said it won’t happen while Donald Trump remains in the White House.

Béland says that’s one of the biggest differences between then and now.

“Back in 1995… there was a sense that Quebec could rely on the United States as a strong, reliable trade partner. This will no longer be the case in the current context,” he said.

He says support for sovereignty can shift quickly. One issue he’s watching is the legal challenge to Quebec’s secularism law, Bill 21. Béland says that if the Supreme Court ruling is seen as unfavourable to the law, sovereigntists could use it to rally support.

“If this decision will be really negative towards Bill 21, then the PQ and sovereigntists could use that and say the Supreme Court is acting against what they describe as a core value of Quebec.”

Montrealer Marc Laforest was eight years old in 1995 and still recalls the day of the referendum.

“I went to my school’s gym with my parents so they could vote, and then we went back home to watch the results on cable TV,” he said.

If another referendum were held, Laforest says several things would shape his decision.

“The question, the clarity of the question, the procedure — whether they comply with what the law says.”

Lawyer Julius Grey says the legal landscape has changed since 1995. In 1998, the Supreme Court ruled Quebec could not unilaterally secede from Canada, but a clear majority voting in favour of secession on a clear question would create an obligation to negotiate.

“There is no right to a unilateral declaration of independence. The Supreme Court said that. But there is a right to negotiations,” he said.

“I think Quebec should be able to make its own decisions,” said Landry.

Not everyone CityNews spoke with felt the same way.

“It’s true that Quebec is a little different from the rest of Canada, but having lived in Vancouver for six years, I don’t want us to separate,” another Montrealer said.

“Canada is a beautiful country… As long as we stay united and keep the peace, that’s what I think.”