How did Montreal go from ice storm to summer temperatures in just a few days?
Posted April 12, 2023 2:29 pm.
Last Updated April 12, 2023 7:05 pm.
A clash of hot and cold air masses is behind the quick shift from an ice storm in Quebec to summer-like temperatures, according to a meteorologist.
But this week’s summer conditions are not here to stay, says CityNews 680 chief meteorologist Natasha Ramsahai, as that southerly flow of extremely warm air moves out.
In fact, Ramsahai says there’s a risk of frost returning next week and there may still be some snow in Quebec’s near future.
“It looks like the warm air is winning this fight a little bit, so it’s pushed up a little bit,” said Ramsahai. “Well above seasonal temperatures and not just for a day or two, but kind of a long drought, almost half a week to five days worth of really warm temperatures.
“The atmospheric setup for this is very similar to what happens in the summer when we start talking about heat waves.”
Ramsahai says this is known as a Bermuda high.
“So we’ve got a high pressure that’s going to sit and sort of sink to the south of us and then park itself over Bermuda,” she said. “What happens then? Air goes clockwise around high-pressure systems in the northern hemisphere, and that allows that southerly flow to be very persistent.
“And until something comes out and kicks that high out, we will be into these warm temperatures for many days.”
Not summer just yet
In Montreal, temperatures will reach 24 Celsius on Thursday, 20 C on Friday, 18 C on Saturday and 23 C on Sunday. The nighttime lows will hover around 8-10 C.
Like the weather, a lot of Montrealers are mixed about the changing temperatures.
“I was supposed to come to an appointment last week, and it was cancelled because my whole car was frozen,” Rylee Durocher told CityNews. And today, I mean, I’m starting to get hot just because I put more than one layer on.
“I’ve been longboarding a lot more even though, you know, we’re just at the start of April. But it’s still not something I’m just rejoicing about because it does indicate that something is going on with our weather patterns.”
While it may be tempting to assume summer is right around the corner, Ramsahai warns that’s not the case.
“A lot of people will get that pep in their step and want to head to the garden store and want to plant stuff,” she said. “But I would caution you still, because, yes, it is still April in Canada and the models are indicating that this is going to come to an end.
“The warm weather, we actually do have a risk of frost returning next week as well for overnight. So sort of around Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. So it’s not safe to plant yet.
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“And I don’t think we’re even done with the flurries just yet. I don’t see any big snowstorms, but I do see temperatures hovering so close to the freezing mark that we will be back into that chance for flurries and risk of frost.”
Ramsahai says it’s not at all abnormal to see “wild swings in temperature” in spring in Canada.
“Averages come from extremes, right,” she said. “And when we say the average high today is 10 degrees, it’s because some days we’ve had 20 and some days we’ve had zero.”
WATCH: Montreal moving to ‘recovery mode’ after the ice storm
Climate change to blame?
Things become abnormal, according to the CityNews 680 meteorologist, when there are prolonged spells of well above seasonal temperatures.
“Then we start talking about blocking patterns in the atmosphere and it does happen,” said Ramsahai. “So blocking patterns happen when there’s something to the east of us that doesn’t allow systems to go through, when the atmosphere kind of gets plugged up or blocked up.
“I’ve been forecasting for over two decades now, and I’ve noticed these blocking patterns seem to be happening a little bit more.”
Ramsahai says that could be explained by something natural and cyclical in the environment. But it could also be climate change.
“The winter cold spells seem to be getting shorter and that does have an impact on the forthcoming seasons,” she said. “So I think what we have been noticing is that jump from winter to almost summer-like temperatures and it’s that in-between season of spring that’s struggling a little bit and having a harder time holding on, where we’re getting these just big jumps from extreme cold to extreme warm.
“And that is something that is happening more frequently that I’ve noticed in the two decades that I’ve been forecasting. There’s definitely changes that are occurring. Things aren’t as smooth and textbook as they used to be.”
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Sebastien Nobert with the Université de Montréal calls the trend concerning.
“Like everyone else, I find this rather worrying and a bit surprising because if you’re looking at maybe the last five years, I would say for many people it seems like spring has almost disappeared,” said the assistant professor of geography.
“The idea that we have now stable summers or stable winters and stable all the time and spring needs to be put aside. That’s the reality of climate change.”
