Quebec’s sovereignty question lingers, 30 years after 1995 referendum

It’s been 30 years since Quebecers narrowly voted to stay in Canada, but a new poll suggests most are still not ready to revisit the sovereignty question. About two-thirds of respondents said they would vote “no” if a referendum were held today, raising questions about what that means for the future of the Quebec sovereignty movement.

“We cannot ever assume that the sovereignty movement is dead, because 30 years ago leading up to the referendum, polls are similar to what they are now,” said Robert Libman, architect and former leader of the Equality Party.

In the referendum 30 years ago, Quebecers cast their ballots in one of the tightest votes in Canadian history. The 1995 referendum ended with 50.58 per cent voting “no” and 49.42 per cent voting “yes,” a margin of just 54,288 votes.

Today, most Quebecers are still hesitant about independence. According to a recent Léger poll, while young voters show slightly more interest, older generations remain largely opposed.

“In the results of the survey, what we see is it certainly hasn’t translated into an appetite for a renewed discussion about a referendum,” said Sébastien Dallaire, executive vice-president, Léger Marketing.

“I think we could hold a vote again, but I don’t know that we’d get the yes this time around either. We’ve had two no’s before, so what’s changed,” said Antoine, a Montrealer.

But three decades on, the population of Quebec looks very different than in 1995.

“We’re not looking at just the Québécois de souche, we’re looking at Quebecers of all stripes, and so I’m an anglophone Quebecer, and I’m a very proud anglophone Quebecer,” said Karim Boulos, political analyst.

“We are all proud to be Quebecers, but I think it’s also important to stay connected with Canada,” said Noémie Chevalier, a Montrealer.

Younger Quebecers say they’re more open to discussions of sovereignty.

“We are not trying to redo 1995, perhaps younger generations perceive independence as a modern answer to modern challenges,” said Victor Dubuc, master’s student in business administration and a member of the Parti Québécois’ national youth council.

“If we can draw clear lines between an independent Quebec, improvements in environment, in cost of living, in housing, in employment, then young people would absolutely go for whatever reaches their priorities,” said Sufia Langevin, president of Y4Y Québec.

While the referendum debate is quieter today, analysts say it will remain a key issue in the 2026 provincial elections.

“Referendum and the possibility of referendum is going to be part of the next campaign for sure. It would be very surprising if it weren’t,” said Dallaire.

A notion reaffirmed by Leader of the Parti Québécois Paul St-Pierre Plamondon on Thursday at the National Assembly, speaking on the 30th anniversary of the referendum.

“So, not only have those under 50 never had their say, but they also deserve their moment,” said Paul St-Pierre Plamondon. “I think the history of Quebec and referendums is a trilogy, and that trilogy will end well, because we’ve tried ‘no’ twice and it has only accelerated our decline.”