Quebec election: PQ enters majority zone, support for CAQ collapsing as advance voting begins

As voters across Quebec began casting their ballots in advance voting, a new poll shows the Parti Québécois (PQ) heading toward a majority government while support for the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) is collapsing.

In a poll by Synopsis-La Presse released Sunday, the PQ gained two points to reach 30 per cent. A political forecasting website and an electoral simulator website are now predicting the PQ will win more than the 64 seats needed to form a majority.

“The goal is to secure as much support as possible, because the difference between a majority and a minority government isn’t just about stability,” said PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon “The fact that with a minority government, the next election comes sooner.

The latest poll shows the CAQ dropped by seven percentage points in voter intention to just 17 per cent, continuing a bad stretch for the party.

“The campaign isn’t over yet,” CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette said. “That’s it. It’s not time to take stock.”

The Quebec Liberals, led by Charles Milliard, placed second, but their support remained at 22 per cent, meaning their promotion was due to the CAQ’s decline rather than a gain in support.

“I knew from the start that we would have a 39-day campaign. There are eight days left,” said Milliard.

The Quebec Conservatives (PCQ), led by Éric Duhaime, who got a bump in the polls in recent weeks, also added three points, equalling the CAQ’s 17 per cent. Québec solidaire (QS) also made some gains with 13 per cent.

“The real question that is starting to get crystallized is, who do you believe to lead Quebec and what is the change that you’re looking forward?” said political analyst Daniel Tran. “And in this case, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has been able to capture this, reassure the voters at the same time with the different debates that happened, and that’s why we’re seeing the results as we have today.

“The real poll will be on October 5, on election day. A lot of people did come out to vote in the advance poll. What we’re seeing at the same time is that these websites, as much as it confirms a crystallization in the trend, we have to exert caution because a lot of upsets could happen.”

The results represented voters who have made a final choice on which party they will be supporting. Around 13 per cent of those polled said they were still undecided with just over a week left to go before the final opportunity to vote on Oct. 5.

CityNews spoke to Montrealers who were happy to see the PQ trending towards a majority.

“Well, I’m happy to hear that, because, look, back in 1995, I was 10 years old, so I didn’t have the right to vote. And I think that today, it might be time for a new referendum,” said Jasmin Ladouceur.

“Right now, I think that, yeah, like we’re going to go, we’re going to be a majoritaire, so for me that’s a very good news,” added Jean-François Primeau.

Others were not as thrilled.

“I don’t like that party at all. I don’t believe in what they stand for. I mean, Canada is Canada,” said Kevin Rankin.

“I pray that they have a minority government if they’re going to get elected, just because I do not want to have another referendum,” added John Flynn.

“A majority, I don’t believe it, I don’t think so,” said Nicole Laverdière.

“Me, for myself, I was hoping for a minority government,” said Claude Flamand. “So it could be governed with all parties together. Now with a single, with a majority, that wouldn’t happen.”

“I’m looking forward to seeing how things unfold from here,” said Manon Bautier.

Fréchette’s own standing also declined among Quebecers, just like her party’s. The outgoing premier slid six percentage points in the number of voters saying she would make the best premier. St-Pierre Plamondon gained two points to reach 26 per cent. Notably, nearly one-in-five electors said none of the leaders of the major parties would be their choice for the next premier of Quebec.

The PQ’s momentum was seen across several geographies and demographic groups.

PQ leads among Francophone voters with 36 per cent, those aged 35 and older. The party has particularly gained support among those 55 and older — a demographic which had been CAQ’s strongest backers.

The PCQ polled the second-best among voters aged 35 and 54, with the support of nearly a quarter of Quebecers behind PQ’s 32 per cent. The QS is the favourite among younger voters aged between 18 and 34 with 25 per cent support.

The PQ was also widening its lead in the suburbs of Montreal, where Synopsis says the race is no longer close. The PQ leads with 32 per cent of voter support while the PLQ and the CAQ were tied for the second spot.

While the Conservatives and the PQ are also locked in a close battle in the Quebec City region, with the PCQ maintaining a one-point lead with 31 per cent support, the Liberals and the QS dominate the Island of Montreal with 38 per cent and 22 per cent respectively.

The poll was conducted online among 1,000 voters from across the province between Sept. 24 and 27.

Quebecers head to the polls on Oct. 5. Advance polling began Sunday and continues Monday.